Reading through the election results
Tuesday's vote casts a shadow for Democrats
By BONNIE ERBE
November 12th, 2009
November 5th, 2009
October 31st, 2009
Politicians, pundits and partisans are still debating whether Tuesday’s gubernatorial massacre of Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey was a backlash against President Barack Obama’s governance or not.
The GOP, itself a tattered group of extreme partisans, is of course eager to claim victory whether or not it deserves the credit. It does not. But equally laughable was White House press secretary Robert Gibbs’ pronouncement that the Democratic pickup of one Upstate New York U.S. House seat was a credible accomplishment for the party. Not true: Democrats got trounced in ‘09 and that’s that, albeit in a limited portion of the country.
Whether this week’s elections are a bellwether for the 2010 congressional elections or not, they’re worth examining to spotlight a couple of trends.
First, Obama was swept into office with support from independents, single women, women of color and young voters ages of 18-30.
In Virginia, this week, where Republican Bob McDonnell crushed his Democratic rival Creigh Deeds, young voters comprised 10 percent of the turnout. Only a year ago, young people comprised 30 percent of turnout in the state.
Turnout also was lower among other groups key to Obama’s 2008 clobbering of the GOP’s John McCain: independents and women. Exit polls show voters’ primary concern is the same as it was last year: the economy.
Between now and next November, Democrats must figure out how to claim credit for an admittedly slow recovery and do everything in their power to push it along. They must somehow make the case that a Republican resurgence will hurt moderates, independents and young people. How and if Democrats can do that is up to them. But if they don’t, this week’s elections should be telling them the losses at the polls next year will be fearsome.
(Erbe is a TV host who writes for Scripps Howard News Service.)
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a teacher wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:06 AM:
Cowboy wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:54 AM:
Enlightened Coelacanth wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:58 AM:
Keep up the denial at your own peril. "
Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 8:12 AM:
Hear Ye wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:02 AM:
I was quite shocked to see a Democrat win NY 23rd for the first time since the late 1800's. That was impressive and could prove useful over the next year. "
John Richards wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:54 AM:
a teacher wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:54 AM:
selim wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:56 AM:
Democrats won both Congressional contests. Period. Frame it anyway you want, but each national contest was won by a Democrat.
Bloomberg's margin of victory was far, far thinner than anyone anticipated despite outspending his rival by a ratio of 14:1.
McDonnell's victory in Virginia was largely due to his anti-tax stance, and not from "culture war" issues like same-sex marriage. Distancing himself from the unsolicited help by Palin and Ralph Reed also no doubt was a wise move.
Surely the GOP did better than the left feared, but not as well as the right had hoped.
The real issue for 2010 is whether the GOP can get back to its roots: whether they can return to a true small government that minds its own business, keeping its mitts out of the personal affairs of the people. They need another Goldwater, not another Bush. If they manage to combine the DNA Teddy Roosevelt and John Maynard Keynes, they'll be saved. If they decide on Caribou Barbie you can count on another electoral bloodbath.
As long as the GOP is associated and enchanted with the purported "power" of the religious right, they'll be as tainted as the left's union shackles. "
AmCanBlogger wrote on Nov 5, 2009 10:41 AM:
kdbk wrote on Nov 5, 2009 12:55 PM:
Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:03 PM:
if I knew what you were talking about I might be able to post a cogent response...
as all you are touting the GOP success....take Virgina and look at how many times it has had a demo gov vs a gop - the masses voting for Obama last were was the aberration in the pattern....and Tuesday's results in VA and NJ show more than ever that it is the candidate and not the party that matters..a weak candidate will lose more often that the strong one....an no party apparatus can prevent that.
As for forgetting about you 'crazy conservatives'...don't worry about it....I have no doubts you and the others will spend most of your time purging the party of wrong thinkers among you, the RINOs as they have been called, and following the words of blessed St Rush.....more than enough to keep you busy and out of trouble. "
Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:07 PM:
Hear Ye wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:24 PM:
That was a heck of a rant unfortunately you have obviously not looked at the history and trends of these off year elections especially Virgina Governor races. Can you tell me the last time a party won the White House and then the Virginia Gubernatorial? Can you tell me how often the off year elections have been an indicator of the following years major elections?
Again, bravo on the rant but it has no facts or logic to stand on. "
anticommie wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:58 PM:
glenroy wrote on Nov 7, 2009 5:18 PM:
Virginians threw out their bummer of a gubbener because of the massive increase in healthcare costs rising 3x the national average over the last 5 years, the direct consequence of a public opinion that has bankrupted the state.
There is not a state in this union that has been subjected to liberalism that is currently fiscally solvent….NOT ONE. "