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Reading through the election results
Tuesday's vote casts a shadow for Democrats
Thursday, November 05, 2009
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Politicians, pundits and partisans are still debating whether Tuesday’s gubernatorial massacre of Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey was a backlash against President Barack Obama’s governance or not.

The GOP, itself a tattered group of extreme partisans, is of course eager to claim victory whether or not it deserves the credit. It does not. But equally laughable was White House press secretary Robert Gibbs’ pronouncement that the Democratic pickup of one Upstate New York U.S. House seat was a credible accomplishment for the party. Not true: Democrats got trounced in ‘09 and that’s that, albeit in a limited portion of the country.
Whether this week’s elections are a bellwether for the 2010 congressional elections or not, they’re worth examining to spotlight a couple of trends.

First, Obama was swept into office with support from independents, single women, women of color and young voters ages of 18-30.
In Virginia, this week, where Republican Bob McDonnell crushed his Democratic rival Creigh Deeds, young voters comprised 10 percent of the turnout. Only a year ago, young people comprised 30 percent of turnout in the state.

Turnout also was lower among other groups key to Obama’s 2008 clobbering of the GOP’s John McCain: independents and women. Exit polls show voters’ primary concern is the same as it was last year: the economy.
Between now and next November, Democrats must figure out how to claim credit for an admittedly slow recovery and do everything in their power to push it along. They must somehow make the case that a Republican resurgence will hurt moderates, independents and young people. How and if Democrats can do that is up to them. But if they don’t, this week’s elections should be telling them the losses at the polls next year will be fearsome.

(Erbe is a TV host who writes for Scripps Howard News Service.)
15 comment(s)

a teacher wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:06 AM:

" Anyone trying to spin meaning out of three races in an off year election is reaching for relevance. "

Cowboy wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:54 AM:

" Nothing new there. Liberals called it a referendum for Obama when the vote went the other way last time, and now it means nothing...??? Haaa...I'm crackin' up... "

Enlightened Coelacanth wrote on Nov 5, 2009 6:58 AM:

" Anyone trying to ignore the plain implications of what happened in Virginia and New Jersey is clearly whistling in the dark.

Keep up the denial at your own peril. "

Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 8:12 AM:

" no teacher, they are GOP pundits looking for hope "

Hear Ye wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:02 AM:

" I'm sure Bonnie needed a topic to write about but her lack of research and historical trends are clear. There is nothing shocking about the two Gubernatorial races. Off year elections have never been an a real indicator of whats to come. The Republicans may make big gains in 2010 or they may not but nothing that happened Tuesday will be relevant.

I was quite shocked to see a Democrat win NY 23rd for the first time since the late 1800's. That was impressive and could prove useful over the next year. "

John Richards wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:54 AM:

" The anti-gay marriage vote in Maine is also meaningless? "

a teacher wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:54 AM:

" My guess is that the right will take the exact wrong lesson from this, that hey need to continue to purge their party of impure conservatives. It's the 20% solution. "

selim wrote on Nov 5, 2009 9:56 AM:

" Corzine lost because he didn't deliver on his promises...even party loyalists didn't turn out in numbers to support him. It had nothing to do with Obama.

Democrats won both Congressional contests. Period. Frame it anyway you want, but each national contest was won by a Democrat.

Bloomberg's margin of victory was far, far thinner than anyone anticipated despite outspending his rival by a ratio of 14:1.

McDonnell's victory in Virginia was largely due to his anti-tax stance, and not from "culture war" issues like same-sex marriage. Distancing himself from the unsolicited help by Palin and Ralph Reed also no doubt was a wise move.

Surely the GOP did better than the left feared, but not as well as the right had hoped.

The real issue for 2010 is whether the GOP can get back to its roots: whether they can return to a true small government that minds its own business, keeping its mitts out of the personal affairs of the people. They need another Goldwater, not another Bush. If they manage to combine the DNA Teddy Roosevelt and John Maynard Keynes, they'll be saved. If they decide on Caribou Barbie you can count on another electoral bloodbath.

As long as the GOP is associated and enchanted with the purported "power" of the religious right, they'll be as tainted as the left's union shackles. "

AmCanBlogger wrote on Nov 5, 2009 10:41 AM:

" No, selim, so long as the democrat party is associated with Acorn, the poor economy (remember when democrats USED to mutter "Its the economy, stupid?), and lack of leadership in the world community, THEY will be tainted, and it will be a new dawn in 2010. I DO hope the libs keep up their denial - it serves my Conservative beliefs well... "

kdbk wrote on Nov 5, 2009 12:55 PM:

" Well, "a teacher", then you've got nothing to worry about, right? So go cuddle back up in your warm blanket and go to sleep. We're not "relevant" and so you can just relax. The denial that liberals like you and Raven display is very amusing. Don't let us take away your fun and "hope". We know that ultimately, that's really all you've got on your side. "Selim", if you don't comprehend how the victories in Virginal and New Jersey are significant, then of course no one can help you. Virginia went to Obama just a year ago, but Tuesday the Republican won the governorship by almost 20%. Guess what, Selim, there was no general outcry amongst Virginians to oust the incumbent, none at all. The people just woke up and realized that conservatives, while having no perfect solutions themselves, are surely more competent than liberals when it comes to taking care of important things in society. And, Selim, the defeat of Corzine in New Jersey, with perhaps the strongest state-level liberal establishment in the nation, was a clear sign that people, even in the bluest of states like NJ, are REJECTING liberalism at all levels. Please, stick with your ilk like "teacher" and Raven, enjoy your warm blanket of socialist thought and just forget about all us crazy conservatives. "

Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:03 PM:

" Raven, enjoy your warm blanket of socialist thought and just forget about all us crazy conservatives....

if I knew what you were talking about I might be able to post a cogent response...

as all you are touting the GOP success....take Virgina and look at how many times it has had a demo gov vs a gop - the masses voting for Obama last were was the aberration in the pattern....and Tuesday's results in VA and NJ show more than ever that it is the candidate and not the party that matters..a weak candidate will lose more often that the strong one....an no party apparatus can prevent that.

As for forgetting about you 'crazy conservatives'...don't worry about it....I have no doubts you and the others will spend most of your time purging the party of wrong thinkers among you, the RINOs as they have been called, and following the words of blessed St Rush.....more than enough to keep you busy and out of trouble. "

Raven wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:07 PM:

" one more thing...how many GOP congressman were elected Tuesday? "

Hear Ye wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:24 PM:

" kdbk-


That was a heck of a rant unfortunately you have obviously not looked at the history and trends of these off year elections especially Virgina Governor races. Can you tell me the last time a party won the White House and then the Virginia Gubernatorial? Can you tell me how often the off year elections have been an indicator of the following years major elections?


Again, bravo on the rant but it has no facts or logic to stand on. "

anticommie wrote on Nov 5, 2009 2:58 PM:

" ITs a mixed bag of success, well the socialists get two more votes in the house for their revolution of America which is disappointing, but they had enough Demos to pass it anyways in that half of Congress. "

glenroy wrote on Nov 7, 2009 5:18 PM:

" The Democrat Governors were thrown out of office because of their utter incompetence…nothing less. Corzine, in particular, created 30 new state jobs for every single tax paying job in the private sector. He was championed as the liberal economic whiz….when in fact, he jumped the Goldman Sachs sinking ship taking tens of unearned millions with him, for which we are all now paying…

Virginians threw out their bummer of a gubbener because of the massive increase in healthcare costs rising 3x the national average over the last 5 years, the direct consequence of a public opinion that has bankrupted the state.

There is not a state in this union that has been subjected to liberalism that is currently fiscally solvent….NOT ONE. "

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