Is it jobs, then spending, or spending, then jobs? The nation looks for each newsflash or business report indicating an end to economic decline and a return to prosperity.

References are made to a jobless recovery where businesses become more profitable and stock values rise, but not from an increase in production or sale of more products.

In a jobless recovery, the profit source is more likely to be greater efficiency in operations and employee cost reduction, resulting in both higher profits and higher unemployment.

An increase in the stock market of almost

50 percent since March has created much wealth for those holding stocks and may add to additional disposable income. However, increased wealth alone creates no jobs unless the disposable money is spent, profits are made and jobs are created. Thus, the stock market may give the appearance of returning health to the economy, but only when that wealth is used for expansion in production and employment.

There is one economic indicator and proven success of the stimulus program that as of this writing is on the verge of extinction or extension. As a key element in the $787 billion stimulus program, first-time homebuyers were able to claim a credit of up to $8,000 on a purchase made between Jan. 1 and Nov. 30, 2009.

Reflecting on the success of the credit program, Leslie Appleton Young, economist for the California Association of Realtors, said earlier this week: “Efforts by the government to stimulate housing and the economy clearly are impacting the market. Sales have exceeded 500,000 homes for 13 consecutive months, and now are

33.1 percent higher on a year-to-date basis compared to 2008.

“September also marked the seventh consecutive month of month-to-month increases in the statewide median price and the first single-digit decline in the year-to-year median price since October 2007, after 22 consecutive months of double-digit decreases.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, has reported expectation that more than 400,000 additional homes will have been sold by the end of the program term this coming month. In addition, home sales activity and the dollar value of sales does not include the consumer dollars used for home furnishings, improvements, and services related to the sale.

Home sales create a stimulus success that can be witnessed in our cities right here in Napa County.

Just this week, the Obama administration called upon Congress to extend the deadline for this home purchase incentive. In the words of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, “We welcome the efforts taken by Congress to extend the first-time home buyers tax credit for a limited period. This credit has brought new families into the housing market and contributed to three consecutive months of rising prices nationwide.”

It appears that the credit will be extended until April 2010, and expanded to include current homeowners. Overcoming testimony regarding fraudulent use of the program, the Senate has reached agreement including greater oversight and administration of the program.

The passage of this extension will aid the recovery of the housing industry and the economy as a whole. As an economic indicator and success of the stimulus program, housing is not hidden in graphs and statistics; you will see it just down the street.

Charles Bogue is a real estate broker in Napa. He can be reached at 486-5511 or e-mail: cbnapa@napanet.net.