Chances are that one out of every four people reading this page has already had the swine flu and is back to good health.

That startling estimate comes from Napa County Public Health Officer Dr. Karen Smith, the leading figure in what has thus far been a relatively smooth and uneventful experience in Napa County with the swine flu —or more properly H1N1 — pandemic.

Recently, Smith and two other top Napa County health officials, Public Health Nurse Laura Keller and epidemiologist Jennifer Henn, visited the Register editorial board to talk about H1N1, what the county is doing about it and what individuals can do about it.

Their overall message is that the county is monitoring for potential surges in swine flu cases at local hospitals and schools. It is not rushing to test everyone with the symptoms, in part because that in itself would put pressure on the medical care system we need to be at the ready when and if the number of cases picks up.

Their most important message is to encourage people, especially the most vulnerable — young people up to age 24, pregnant women and people with fragile immune systems — to get the vaccine at the earliest opportunity.

Right now, the vaccine is available only in very limited numbers and is being held for the most vulnerable. Smith said she hopes and expects that the vaccine will be readily available here by mid-November.

Henn explained that the county has begun to monitor a few key sites, four public schools and two hospitals, to get an early warning of a rise in cases. So far, the reports have shown mild numbers of absentees at school because of flu-like symptoms, and a very modest number of people presenting themselves at hospitals with a combination of symptoms including 100 degree or higher temperatures, a strong cough or sore throat.

Keller pointed out that the outreach effort, which includes a substantial public campaign to be outlined on this page Monday, also includes a gathering of medical professionals prepared to jump into action if the number of cases rises.

By 2010, Smith said, the H1N1 antidote will be a part of the normal, seasonal flu vaccine that many of us already receive each year. This pandemic may yet pass through Napa County without leaving a trail of tears.

In the meanwhile, wash your hands at every turn, make sure young children do the same and stay home from school or work if you are under the weather. Stay calm, stay aware, and if you fall into one of the categories that Dr. Smith and others are most concerned about, see your doctor to ask about getting the vaccine.