The economic turnaround is coming.

That was the bottom line of a talk from Dr. Robert Eyler, a Sonoma State University economics professor who launched Friday’s 2010 Napa County Economic Outlook, a day-long session attended by about 150 local businesspeople at the Napa Valley Marriott.

Eyler was the first of six speakers who offered everything from economic overviews and careful predictions to practical advice for small business owners.

“We have a lot of good things happening, we just need to see them come to fruition,” said Eyler, leader of the Center of Regional Economic Analysis at Sonoma State University. “This time next year, we should be feeling like we are out.”

Eyler said that an end to the recession — defined in economic terms as two or more quarters of consecutive decline in the gross domestic product —  will be upon us by the end of the year. But he said it may not feel like that right away on “the street” as banks remain reluctant to lend and new hiring lags other economic factors. He also said the state government’s woeful financial performance risks slowing the return to better days.

He also said stimulus money and federal monetary policy can be slow to sink in.

“Federal spending may stimulate state economies, but will lag behind the national economy because that spending takes time to travel from state capitols to private firms to workers and spending,” Eyler said.

Eyler encouraged a regional development plan to get start-up businesses and other innovators into empty existing commercial spaces. Current commercial tenants may have leverage in asking for rent decreases, he said, as the sector facing the roughest road now is commercial real estate.

At the same time, Napa County needs to remain competitive against other California regions. The north and south areas of Napa County must work together, he said. “Think countywide,” said Eyler. “Other counties are looking to take business from you.”

Carol Collison, vice president of St. Helena-based Global Wine Partners, acknowledged deep difficulties in the wine business but saw a turnaround coming, as well.

“The eye of the storm is over the Napa Valley wine business,” Collison said. But, she added, that the nationwide growth in wine consumption, reputation of Napa Valley wines and continued focus on direct sales will buoy the local industry. “The Napa Valley wine business will come out the other side bigger and better than it ever has.”

Collison said consolidation among wine distributors and their lowered expectations of wine sales have caused problems for the small, premium-wine producers in the industry, including the hundreds in Napa Valley. Larger wineries benefit not only from their economy of scale but from their greater clout with distributors, she said.

“There will be winners and losers in this cycle and that will be determined by who’s got a lot of leverage,” Collison said.

Looking forward, she said that innovative marketing efforts and cultivation of direct consumers are the lifelines for many wineries. “The winners are going to be the people that use this opportunity to get smarter about the way they do business,” she said.

Later in the morning session, two executives from marketing firm Ypartnership discussed the outlook for the hospitality industry, another Napa Valley cornerstone.

Ypartnership CEO Peter Yesawich highlighted the changing ways people choose their travel destinations, with increased reliance on the Internet and mobile devices and an emphasis on value that he expects to carry through at least until the end of 2010, when the economy is expected to brighten.

His colleague, K. Scott Myers, unveiled a Napa Valley application for the iPhone that will allow visitors to get information about the valley, including special limited-time offers and deals tailored to their interests, on their mobile devices.Southern California marketing specialist Beth Ziesenis walked attendees through a dozen useful computer applications — all free or inexpensive — that can help business owners build their own brochures, manipulate images, track their time with clients and work while on the road. Web sites Ziesenis highlighted include Jing.com, xobni.com and doodle.com.

The final speaker was Lisa deBruin, who works with Hahn Family Wines and is an expert in business use of social networking Web sites and marketing. De Bruin used her company’s example of having its wines banned in Alabama because of a controversy about the wine label and turning it into a momentum-builder for the company. She told the crowd that social marketing programs such as Facebook and Twitter should be seen not as revenue-generating mechanisms, but as ways to connect with new clients that will pay off incrementally.

The event was sponsored by the chambers of commerce in Napa, Yountville and St. Helena.

Register Editor Bill Kisliuk contributed to this story.