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Napa Pipe homes a boost to economy?
Monday, April 27, 2009
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The controversial Napa Pipe development proposed for south Napa County would create thousands of jobs and pour billions of dollars into the local economy, according to a report commissioned by Napa Pipe developers.

A fiscal impact report prepared by Economics Research Associates projects that the Napa Pipe project would bring $2.1 billion to Napa County and create 1,300 permanent jobs.
Between 2010 and 2020, Napa Pipe developers would spend approximately $1 billion on construction, according to the report, resulting in a $1.6 billion boost to Napa County’s economy in direct and indirect impacts. During the same time period, new residents and employees at Napa Pipe would generate a reported $440 million, bringing the total benefit to Napa County to $2.12 billion, according to the report.

During the 11-year anticipated build-out period, Napa Pipe would create 1,200 jobs annually, the report states.
When the project is completed in 2020, the report states, ongoing expenditures from new employees and new residents at Napa Pipe would add $92 million annually to the Napa County economy and result in 1,300 permanent jobs.

The report assumes that the Napa Pipe development would include industries that would both bring in new money from outside of Napa County and encourage the circulation of existing money in the county. For example, the report points out, the proposed condominium hotel would attract visitors who may not otherwise have chosen to stay in Napa County. The report estimates that Napa Pipe would bring in about 53,000 tourists a year once the hotel is built in 2013.
The report does not address whether or not the Napa Pipe hotel would siphon away money from the other hotels proposed for Napa County, a concern that some critics of the project have expressed.

The majority of the jobs immediately created by the Napa Pipe project would be in construction, according to the report. During the final year of the pre-construction period, it is expected that Napa Pipe would create 180 jobs a year.

In 2014 — at the end of the first of three proposed construction phases — the report projects Napa Pipe would create 1,350 new jobs, mostly in construction. The number of new jobs would jump to nearly 2,200 by the end of the third phase in 2020, according to the report, with far more jobs coming from the commercial development of the property.

Eve Kahn, chairwoman of the group Get A Grip On Growth, which opposes the Napa Pipe project, is skeptical of the report’s results, though she acknowledges she has not reviewed the report itself.

“In general,” Kahn said, “homes do not cover the cost. If you build housing, it almost never covers the cost of services” provided by government agencies, such as police, fire and schools.

However, a previous report from 2008 maintained that the Napa Pipe project would have no negative impact on the local governments responsible for providing services to its residents.

The new study is one of several as the environmental impact report is prepared for the controversial project, the largest of its kind in the history of the county. If approved, the mixed-use development on the site of the former Napa Pipe and Kaiser Steel operations would feature 2,580 townhomes, a hotel, restaurants, office space and light industrial use.

The environmental study is expected to go before the Napa County Board of Supervisors later this year. County officials have been interested in the project because it would help the county reach affordable housing goals for years to come. Officials from the city of Napa oppose the project, which is just outside city limits.
28 comment(s)

napablogger wrote on Apr 27, 2009 12:33 AM:

" Of course it would be a boon to the economy, the economy is driven by development.

The idea that development costs more in services to the government is an old saw that does not include tax revenue after it is built. That many consumers will generate tremendous sales tax revenue from local businesses much of which will go to local governments in part.

If you don't believe me take a look at American Canyon. Wal Mart wouldn't build until AmCan had built enough housing to support it, which they did, and now the City is reaping the benefits of all those tax dollars. But you have to have the population base to support the businesses.

I was thinking about the foolishness of turning down the Lake Luciana project even though 70% of the neighbors wanted it, just in the name of no growth gone wild.

That project if it were already built would have generated at least a million a year in property taxes for the schools alone. Think the schools could have used an extra million in Napa this year?

If Napa becomes the County of No just like the Republicans in Congress then we are also going to become the county of NO money, no tax collections, and no way to serve the large health and human services needs we have here, among other things.

Do we really want to go down that road? because we are dangerously close. When we start talking about not letting someone build houses on ten plus acre sites because someone likes to walk their dog there we are really going over the edge. "

GET REAL wrote on Apr 27, 2009 6:31 AM:

" The Napa Pipe project is really just an "affordable housing" project right?

If you build it they willl come... "

mominapa wrote on Apr 27, 2009 7:40 AM:

" The Napa Pipe Homes project would only generate revenue in property taxes if the homes were bought. I foresee many of them standing empty because people will not be able to get the loans to buy them unless the economy strengthens. Also, the jobs generated in construction will not be permanent jobs. The jobs will end after the project is built and if our construction industry does not improve, the people losing those jobs will either just remain unemployed or leave the valley looking for jobs. "

jefferson wrote on Apr 27, 2009 8:18 AM:

" Just another "pipe"-dream. "

notpc wrote on Apr 27, 2009 8:25 AM:

" Ask American Canyon what kind of crime statistics Wal Mart has generated since they opened. All development is not good or bad but historically low income apartments generate a disportionate amount of crime statistics. Look at how Napa City crime statistics are growing. Its not just a coincidence that with the addition of this type of housing our crime stats are growing. "

napadad wrote on Apr 27, 2009 8:29 AM:

" I recently went out to napa pipe and asked if I could take photos for a class project (new topographical landscapes)
and was told, and I quote "we dont like people coming on the property taking pictures because we dont know where the pictures will end up". I dont really know what that means, or where a photograph of a property that has been photographed for decades could "end up" but this is indicative of the developers transparency (in my opinion) or lack of it. I do know there are no quarentees that Napa county companies will get the bids for construction and on a job this big there will be heavy hitters bidding. Or that local business will be able to or want to take a chance on this project when the doors open. And then there are the 1300 permanent jobs, no job seekers from vallejo, benecia, fairfield, vacaville or sonoma will fill any of those jobs. How many of the construction companies on the riverfront project are napa companies? "

4gnapan wrote on Apr 27, 2009 9:38 AM:

" More Whitewash on the pig does not a pretty face make...

Napa Pipe is going to make one entity money, and it wont be the locals.

Do we really need another "Silverado" here? "

howiseeit wrote on Apr 27, 2009 10:24 AM:

" If this development flies, please have them provide some $ for widening Hwy 121 & 128 as well as Suisun Valley Road and Mankas Corner Road.

Those are the roads a lot of us take when we have to go east during busy traffic hours for Jameson Canyon Road. The additional population in the Napa Pipe project will make it impossible to get through the south county.

Many people think there are too many accidents on Jameson Canyon Road. Just wait until traffic doubles or triples on the roads I mentioned above.

I don't see how the development of the Napa Pipe property for homes can be a long term and sustainable win-win for anyone other than the developers. "

mykdgirl54 wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:05 AM:

" Im sorry, maybe I'm confused. I thought we already HAD a housing surplus right now??! How is building more houses going to be effective if NO ONE can qualify for loans to buy them!!? *sigh* "

manxkat wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:28 AM:

" Who is going to pay for the schools for the 2,000 kids who will move in there? I will be just like Am Can and Napans will be stuck with the bill. "

109823 wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:28 AM:

" With all the positive responses here I'd say this project is moving forward and gaining speed. You think anybody cares if there's no loans available or that currently the market is flooded with homes that can't sell? "

bennyd wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:43 AM:

" I'm always amazed at the out right knowledge of some of these posts. The certainty in which if we do nothing, this will help our economy. Pretty short sighted. The Napa Pipe development can provide jobs and create much needed transit infrastructure we desperately need to offset the traffic problems here along the Vallejo/AmCan/Napa corridor. I see our economy here in Napa as a place that has potential to becoming an even better world destination. A walkable community for young Napan's and others who choose to make Napa their home, is another plus. "

littlered56 wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:47 AM:

" I can see a lot of wealthy folks buying homes there for a second home. they would shop locally I assume. I think Napa could support another silverado.
I do not think bids should be given based on where bidders live. If an out of town contractor has the abilitey for bonding and is low bid so be it. Why would you give a job to a person because of where he lives and not to the best qualified. I assume anyone hired would move closer to their job. I suspect the homes will have a hefty property tax coming into Napa County. It sure may help in the long run of things. "

Paddy wrote on Apr 27, 2009 11:52 AM:

" The overused analogy of lipstick on a pig is so very appropriate here. There are no guarantees of new jobs other than the temporary ones that will turn this community into an infrastructure nightmare with miles of traffic in and out of the city every day.

Mr. Rogal spent far too much on this property and is determined to stick it to the city and county to recoup his bad investment. I'm sick of the Napa Register providing him with free access for his propaganda push. Do they believe the residents of Napa are so ignorant that we'd fall for this baseless arguement? "

reason-ator wrote on Apr 27, 2009 12:38 PM:

" This is great. Some temporary jobs for some out-of-towners, while we get to suffer and pay for the mess.

I predicted we'd start hearing these kind of sales pitches, but it took longer than I thought it would.

Obviously, I'm convinced by this expected step in the bargaining and compromise process.

This whole process is so transparent it would be hilarious if it wasn't going to end up so sadly.

Just remember to vote out all those that we can who leave us with the mess. "

littlered56 wrote on Apr 27, 2009 1:25 PM:

" I remember as a young child when Westwood was being developed. People were outraged to think a track of homes could and would be built in Napa. It has continued all these many years. Building new homes will of course destroy Napa and well ,you know, let new people settle here.
Welcome to the 21st century. . "

epicuria wrote on Apr 27, 2009 1:54 PM:

" Fortunately, it's the same five obstructionists who recite over and over-- the sky is falling, the sky is falling. This project has a long time line. Many questions must be answered over many months. If the economy doesn't come back by 2011 then we really are going through a second Great Depression and all bets are off. But if it does, which seems probable as dire as things seem now, then a sustainable, eco-friendly, and architecturally exciting project will be ready to respond to the marketplace.

Keith Rogel did not overpay for the reuse he envisioned. We'll see if his foresight is practical and can be implemented. I believe it is and will be built in due time, with those who want to turn back the clock continuing to offer nothing but lamentations. "

Sickothis wrote on Apr 27, 2009 4:43 PM:

" California unsold homes index plummets
Published: April 27, 2009

The unsold inventory index for existing, single-family detached homes in March was 5 months, less than half the 12.2 months for the same period a year ago, according to a report Monday from the California Association of Realtors.

http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/04/27/daily2.html?surround=etf "

crymeariver wrote on Apr 27, 2009 7:17 PM:

" My spidersense tells me that epicuria works for Mr. Rogel himself....

But while we are at it, count me in as a buyer at Napa pipe. I would love to smell the sweet stench of the napa river, and the nearby sewage plant. I would enjoy that healthy, uncontaminated soil and I look foward to that gusty wind. Napa Pipe = my dream location to live.

(nothing but sarcasm_ "

rico wrote on Apr 27, 2009 7:27 PM:

" I wonder why Eve Kahn is quoted in this story when she admits she hasn't read the report. "

sotto voce wrote on Apr 27, 2009 8:01 PM:

" To littlered56: Westwood is exactly what NP would deteriorate into. It is a ghetto, gang infested, mired in foreclosures, with cars parked on lawns.

It is extremely affordable, but would you live there? REO's sell for less than $175.

Don't we ever learn? "

LMW wrote on Apr 27, 2009 8:28 PM:

" great!!! a positive impact targeted toward an economy screaming for help. "

vocal-de-local wrote on Apr 27, 2009 10:14 PM:

" So what are you suggesting Napablogger?

We need more population growth in order to create more tax dollars, but then after awhile, we've exhausted them, so we must further expand our population to gain more tax dollars etc etc? Where does it stop?

Your type of thinking leads to places resembling Mexico City. I have never in my life interacted with anyone who was so pro growth. "

littlered56 wrote on Apr 27, 2009 10:40 PM:

" I have frieds who do still live Westwood. They made nice homes there and raised a good family there. So I know there are some really good people living in Westwood,
The point I was trying to make about Westwood is people just do not support subdivision in Napa.I think people fear their property will devalue if there is more comptention on the ..But I think this might turn out to really work and make a good tax base for the county..I sure hope so.
I wonder what the good people of Napa are doing to rech out to the kids in /westwood. Here in St Paul they have started a police cadette program. the little asian kids look so cute they are very short but they are trying wish there was something like it for Westwoodkids
Market, "

Paddy wrote on Apr 27, 2009 10:53 PM:

" 4/27/2009 at 10:43 PM: 721 homes for sale in the cities of AmCan and Napa... 268 homes in Napa County available for less than $300,000. The last thing Napa will ever need is to double or triple that count and be stuck with 3,000 homes for sale, 1,500 of them for less than $300,000.

What insanity has gripped those in this populace who want to live in this planned quagmire? Or is it that you demand cheap labor and believe this to be your personal hamlet for exploited labor?

For those of you who can't wait to live is such a sardinesque community there are many opportunities in Southern California and real estate is going dirt cheap. Enjoy yourselves! "

reason-ator wrote on Apr 28, 2009 12:17 AM:

" It's funny how some of the Pipe-lovers seem to get an e-mail at work telling them they need to come here and make it seem like there are people who look forward to more traffis, stretched government resources, and over-crowding.

As a matter of fact, some of them sound as if they could write sales brochures. What a coincidence.

To me, it's a simple as this - if Mr. Rogal wants to spend the money to build two interchanges on the highways his profit-center is going to sit in the middle of, and add at least one extra lane on those highways for at least four or five miles in each direction BEFORE he starts to build his project ( because the tens of thousands of workers his economic studies are projecting will need the roadways expanded just to get to work, won't they ? Let alone the trucks for the millions of yards of dirt.... ), then I wouldn't object to the mess.

But somehow, I don't think he wants to do that for us. We're not as important to him as he is. He will only do the minimum that is required of him. All his efforts are in the selling of the project to us and the government who he needs to convince to take the responsibility for the mess. "

epicuria wrote on Apr 30, 2009 12:15 AM:

" Nope, Epicuria has no connection with Mr. Rogel. Just a resident who likes what she sees and hears about the project. But then the nay sayers do have a tendency to think in terms of conspiracy. Remember, "developers" built America (and elsewhere). And most likely the homes you're living in....

Epi "

Paddy wrote on May 7, 2009 9:58 AM:

" It's ironic littlered56 uses Westwood as a successful development. It's quickly becoming a horror.

The 18th century menatality that massive development can occur without negatively impacting the surrounding communities quality of life (or, incredibly, somehow making it better) need to read the newspapers of communities who have overbuilt. Why in the world would we sign up for those nightmares? When do we finally say 'enough!'? I think that day is here. "

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