After months of study and political wrangling, the proposed development at Napa Pipe reached a milestone Monday afternoon with the release of three reports detailing the expected effects of the proposed 3,200 new homes at the south county site.

The studies — commissioned by Napa County and the city of Napa in June 2007 and paid for by the developer, Napa Redevelopment Partners — examine the traffic, fiscal and water impacts of the mixed-use development on the site for years occupied by Kaiser Steel and then Napa Pipe.

The project would generate about 26,000 new car trips a day, according to a study by transportation consultants Fehr & Peers. The development would put an estimated 2,400 new cars on the road during morning peak hours, and 2,300 during the evening rush.

Congestion would be widespread, the study shows, affecting intersections from Lincoln Avenue to Highway 37.

Among the intersections potentially impacted by traffic are Imola and Soscol avenues, Napa-Vallejo Highway at Streblow Drive, Napa-Vallejo Highway at Kaiser Road, and Kaiser Road at Enterprise Way.

Consultants recommend measures to reduce most of the significant traffic impacts. The developer would be required to pay for these mitigation measures as well as “a fair share contribution to other long-term unfunded roadway improvements.”

Recommended improvements include the construction of a new flyover ramp for the Southern Crossing, where Highway 29 and 221 meet, and the construction of a new interchange where Jamieson Canyon Road meets Airport Boulevard and Highway 29.

“The cost to implement feasible mitigation measures has not been determined yet,” Napa County Planning Director Hillary Gitelman wrote in an accompanying memo to the Napa County Board of Supervisors, “and the project’s ‘fair share’ would clearly be subject to further calculations and negotiations.”

The study includes details about what it would look like if three alternative projects were built at Napa Pipe:

a 2,050-home project with some light industrial and retail space;

 600 “live-work dwelling units,” significant industrial space plus retail;

One is an all-industrial project.

Those alternative uses would generate about 17,000, 14,000 and 16,000 trips respectively, according to the report.

Developer Keith Rogal of Napa Redevelopment Partners hired separate consultants to review the findings of Fehr & Peers, and they came up with different results.

Consultant DMJM Harris determined that the number of car trips generated by the proposed development is exaggerated in the report by Fehr & Peers by 30 percent.

Rogal said the study by Fehr & Peers does not take into account the fact that many services, such as retail and restaurants, are also proposed at Napa Pipe; these resources would keep residents within the neighborhood and out of their cars, he said.

Rogal has also suggested the possibility of alternative transportation, including a water taxi on the Napa River, rail service between Vallejo and Calistoga, and a shuttle from Napa Pipe — all of which would reduce traffic estimates.

Furthermore, Rogal said studies must consider what traffic will look like 20 years from now even without development at Napa Pipe.

“They saw serious congestion at many intersections; they then leaped to the conclusion that because this was a study at Napa Pipe, that the serious congestion at those intersections was the result of the project,” Rogal said.

Taxes and revenue

The second study released Monday details fiscal impacts of the proposed development at Napa Pipe.

The two-part study includes a market assessment prepared by Strategic Economics and a fiscal impact analysis prepared by Economic Research Associates.

The fiscal impact analysis determines that the project would not have negative fiscal impacts on the county or city, even taking into account the use of county services such as fire and sheriff.

The project’s net fiscal benefit is estimated at $900,000 annually.

The study assumes that the development plan will include a special district to collect a tax or assessment to cover the cost of services such as fire.

The study projects that the county will receive $10 million in permit and processing fees, and that the city of Napa will receive about $300,000 in annual sales tax revenue from Napa Pipe residents. The city of American Canyon will receive about $99,000 in sales tax revenue, the study finds, assuming the city captures 10 percent of new resident spending.

Separately, the market analysis found that the proposed development at Napa Pipe is economically feasible, but notes that it could take a number of years to fully absorb the market rate units proposed.

“This is consistent with the developer’s latest proposal to phase development over 20 years,” according to Gitelman.

A new marina, water-dependent uses and heavy industrial uses may not be feasible at Napa Pipe, the study shows.

H20 outlook

The last of the studies, prepared by West Yost Associates under contract with the city, explores potential impacts on water supplies. Additional treatment capacity and water storage would be needed if the development at Napa Pipe relies on the city for water, studies show.

The developer, however, has proposed to use 100 percent groundwater from the Napa Pipe site.

“Our sustainable groundwater supplies are truly massive, far more than would be necessary even for the full build-out of the maximum-size project being studied,” according to Rogal.

The three studies were prepared as part of the City-County Study Group approved by the Board of Supervisors in June 2007.

Now available as drafts, the studies are subject to public input.

For more information, contact  county officials.

The city of Napa is independently preparing another study on the cost of traffic mitigation and the financial feasibility of development at Napa Pipe. The “due diligence” report, as it is called, will be released shortly, Mayor Jill Techel said last week.

Napa Pipe’s impact

Studies released this week gauge the potential impacts of the proposal for 3,200 homes, retail, hotel and other business developments at the 152-acre former Napa Pipe site. According to the reports, Napa Pipe, as proposed, would:

• Generate $10 million in permit fees for the county during construction.

• Generate $2.2 million in annual property taxes after build-out.

• Cost $166 million over 10 years for insfratructure, including roads, sewer, a fire station with police substation.

• Cost $1.9 million annually for sheriff’s services and $1.35 million annually for fire services.

• Generate overall annual increase in county general fund of $990,000.

• Generate 26,000 vehicle trips per day.

• Require a new lane in each direction on Highway 221.

•  Require more turn lanes at Highway 221 and Imola Avenue.

• Affect traffic from Napa’s First Street Bridge to American Canyon Road.

• Generate $300,000 a year of sales tax in the city of napa.

• Have “mixed” economic effects on Napa. Helping businesses, perhaps hurting restaurants, luxury hotels.

• Help meet projected needs for housing in Npa County by 2030.