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Political horse race enters the final furlong
Saturday, November 01, 2008
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Here is an interesting article from Timothy Carney, which gives a quick and dirty analysis (click here to read) of most of the races around the country including the Presidential race.

The ENPR at the top stands for Evans Novak Political Report, one of the oldest political insider news sheets around. It has been handed over to Carney by Robert Novak who is too ill to continue. He is known for his inside information and excellent analysis. I have no idea if Carney is up to the same level, but he does presumably have the same sources as Novak.
ENPR has the Presidential race being closer than most think. Most are agreeing that it is starting to tighten, although Obama maintains a lead. Some Republicans have been insisting that it is neck and neck, but the way that Palin has been acting suggests that she doesn't think so.

She has been openly defying the McCain campaign handlers, and going "rogue,” i.e. thinking of her own future in the party and not helping McCain win the Presidency. Instead, she has been indirectly criticizing the campaign, and giving interviews that the campaign does not want her to give. The lack of loyalty to McCain is pretty shocking and is not going to help her with some voters. She is also falling like a rock in Alaska voter polls, due to her intense partisanship during the campaign. Some of the dirt, like the way she handled the trooper investigation, has hurt her as well.
Mostly she has seriously hurt McCain, as 59 percent of the Republicans and independents planning to vote for McCain have said that she is a major reason.

At this point in the campaign, both sides are pounding away with their main messages, McCain on Obama's negative past relationships and his "socialist" policy plans, Obama on the need for change and that he is the man to deliver it. Obama is mainly focusing on the economy.
In the meantime, the Artist formerly known as Joe the Plumber has signed a recording contract, hired a publicist, and plans to run for Congress.
14 comment(s)

a teacher wrote on Oct 31, 2008 10:20 AM:

" "In the meantime, the Artist formerly known as Joe the Plumber has signed a recording contract, hired a publicist, and plans to run for Congress."

Only in America... "

a teacher wrote on Oct 31, 2008 10:33 AM:

" I've been listening and watching the news and I've been struck by the following. When McCain/Palin supporters are interviewed they are certain that they are right and that they are the mainstream, that is, that the majority of Americans see things their way.

I think that when the post mortum of this election and the Bush years is completed, that will figure in the demise of the Conservative wing of the Republican party. "

kevin wrote on Oct 31, 2008 11:03 AM:

" LOL.

NB you are becoming more Liberal every day!

You deliberately fail to mention that the polling was done by that extremist left wing blog DailyKook.

You also fail to mention that the approval rating of Palin (after the 24-7 smear campaign by B.O. AND the media) fell from 68% in Sept to 63% in October!

Any other politician in America would kill for numbers like that!

I don't know what happened to you NB, but I hope the medication kicks in pretty soon. This infection of yours is getting out of hand... "

a teacher wrote on Oct 31, 2008 11:35 AM:

" Kevin I don't mind when you say something I don't agree with, but I mind when you lie.

The poll you're trying to pin on the DailyKos was actually done by the New York Times/CBS. Other polls, ex:Washington Post/ABC show the same thing. Palin is hurting McCain with Independents and some moderate Republicans.

The 68% approval is with ALASKAN voters. It's a drop of 12%. NATIONALLY, she has a 51% unfavorable rating against a 46% favorable rating. That's a drop of 13% (from a UPI poll conducted 10/29-30). The biggest drop has been with women, the demograph she was supposed to help with.

Obama and Biden have pretty much ignored Palin on the stump. They hardly mention her. That certainly isn't true of McCain or Palin, whose entire campaign consists of:

OMG! OBAMA! RUN AWAY!

Americans are getting tired of that. Most people don't like pit bulls. "

kevin wrote on Oct 31, 2008 1:34 PM:

" ateacher, please quit trying to further demonstrate why our kids are failing in school.

NB stated: "She is also falling like a rock in Alaska voter polls,..."

That is what I responded to. 63% this month from 68% last month is not "falling like a rock".

The Progressive Alaska website where I got the info even said: "Surprisingly, her popularity seems to be undiminished, even after the release of the Branchflower Report."

I may have mis-read the part about the source:

"The most prestigious national progressive blog, DailyKos, published Alaska race polls today, that also polled favorability numbers on Gov. Sarah Palin."

I can see where it says they PUBLISHED it. I guess that doesn't necessarily mean they PAID for it.

Obama has pretty much been ignoring Biden, or at least trying. Still a whole weekend to go. I'm sure he has time to say something stupid that will take B.O. down another point or two... "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 31, 2008 3:29 PM:

" kevin - You should check your facts before publishing your Bluff-n-Guff.

On the DailyKos, which actually publishes the Research 2000 polls 'internals' and the 'questions' so people can judge the data for themselves, you miss the boat.

Your 'kung-fu is weak'!

Here are a couple of quotes for ya.

On Barack Obama:

"Mr. Obama’s favorability is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls. This would include Reagan (1980) and Clinton (1992)."

On Sarah Palin:
" Mrs. Palin’s negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News. Even Dan Quayle, with whom Mrs. Palin is often compared because of her age and inexperience on the national scene, was not viewed as negatively in the 1988 campaign. "

For years and years, Republican-enablers have had a very fast and loose relationship with the truth... and most people now have them pegged accurately.

~Ruff "

a teacher wrote on Oct 31, 2008 5:28 PM:

" Well jeez, Kevin, I can't see how I demonstrated why my students would be failing. I called you on stretching the truth and you have.

You said:"That is what I responded to. 63% this month from 68% last month is not "falling like a rock".

You are trying to weasel out of your statement. Palin's favorability was at 80% prior to her selection as McCain's VP. Less than 2 months later, she is at 63%. THAT is dropping like a rock.

You also claimed:"(after the 24-7 smear campaign by B.O. AND the media)". I don't know about the media - I would call it looking at the facts (you know, like Palin claims when she points out Obama's associations). However, the Obama campaign has been strictly hands off Palin. My guess is that they figure she'll hang herself. My guess is that they are correct.

I teach my students to be thorough and check their answers for accuracy. Maybe you should also. "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 31, 2008 8:28 PM:

" "a teacher" - John Dubya McCain finally hooked up with Joe-the-Plumber and is now promising to take J-t-P to Washington with him...

;o)

Joe is going to use his 'foreign policy expertise' to help prop up Mrs. Bullwinkle I guess!

~Ruff "

kevin wrote on Nov 1, 2008 6:22 PM:

" Republicans always help out the "little guy"; it's what we do.

Especially after the B.O. campaign set out to destroy Joe, just like they do all their opponents. Using State employees and State computers to find "dirt" on him to prevent him from working.

Class act, them Democrats... "

misfit wrote on Nov 1, 2008 7:26 PM:

" Kevin...What little guy? Your financial advisor?
Joe brought this on himself. Why would one with so little to say put themselves under the microscope like that. Why would he want to expose himself for what he truly is/isn't? He is an imbecile! And now, he goes out and hires a publicist. Maybe he can afford to pay his taxes after all. "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Nov 1, 2008 9:17 PM:

" kevin- It's not St. Patrick's Day, please save the blarney about how Republicans always help the "little guy".

You've been calling tax cuts for the middle class 'socialism' ever since the Republican Talking Points came out.

And you called healthcare for the 47 million 'little guys (and gals, too)" who are uninsurred 'socialism' too.

However, I've never heard you have a bad thing to say about tax cuts and perks for rich people who don't need them.

~Ruff "

napablogger wrote on Nov 1, 2008 11:45 PM:

" The main source of the poll numbers is from a firm in Alaska quoted in the article below from the LA Times:

New poll numbers show the Alaska governor's approval rating has taken its biggest hit since her election in 2006. "The Honeymoon Is Coming to an End," Ivan Moore Research of Anchorage said in its report.


....Palin's approval rating of 68% ...the new figure for Palin is down from a high of 82% in January, which she replicated in the days following her surprise selection Aug. 29 as John McCain's running mate.

Also, her disapproval rating in the survey of 500 likely voters conducted Saturday through Monday was at 27% -- double what it was at the beginning of the month. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 4.4%.

Predictably, the biggest erosion in good feelings about Palin occurred among Alaskan Democrats. But there also was a measurable slip in her standing among independent/third-party voters.

...Moore notes, lots of governors would be pretty happy with Palin's 68% approval mark.

That's "still pretty positive," he says. "But I suspect we've only caught the slump kind of halfway through here."

She has dropped that much in the last month or two. And the trend is continuing. That is why I said dropping like a rock. "

Sickothis wrote on Nov 2, 2008 10:55 AM:

" Teacher, Ruff - please stop feeding the trolls.

Heh. "

a teacher wrote on Nov 2, 2008 4:27 PM:

" Worms gotta eat, buzzards gotta eat, why not trolls? "

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