NVR Logo
What's next for the bailout?
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Save and Share Share
What always seems to happen when a large controversial issue hits the news, massive confusion results and everyone relies on their ideological perspective to start criticizing those who have done wrong, or so they feel. People immediately jump in and blame the other side, then rich people, Congress, and whoever else they can get their hands on. It is better not to get too involved at that state because a lot of it turns out to be wrong or in some way off the mark.

At this point the dust is beginning to settle a bit on the mortgage loan debt crisis, and finally some serious thinking is starting to emerge. One is that both parties have plenty to answer for, and it is better to stop worrying about that and to start worrying about how to fix the problem.
Congress passing some type of bail out bill was a critical first step, that unfortunately took too long due to the partisan wrangling and anger going on. However, they did pass it and we need to move on from there. Some economists and others are starting to get bogged down in what caused the great depression, for example, which is another stupid waste of time.

Right now the financial panic is still on the rise and spreading world wide. These are scary times indeed, and no one knows how far this is going to go. What we need now is non ideological leadership that can apply the best solutions to stem the bleeding and start to put in place the best policies to make the recession as shallow and short as possible.
I do not expect us to go into a depression as bad as the great depression of the 30's, we have learned a lot since then. The biggest danger for us now is partisan blindness. For example, reducing capital gains taxes is not going to do anything over the next year to help this situation, and is more of a long term solution. We need to focus on repairing the housing industry which is at the center of the storm.

To that end, Gregory Mankiw, former head of Bush's council of economic advisors, has written a piece that includes one of the better ideas that has been floated out there.
Click here for the full item

The essence of his argument is that the ideal is to have investors like Warren Buffet bail out the troubled institutions, i.e. with private money, in conjunction with the government. The government will offer loans to those investors of 50% of the value of the investment as a way to shore up the willing investor and reduce risk for them. As a silent partner the taxpayers can eventually benefit from the recovery of the companies. That way the ones that really are not worth saving will not be able to attract investments.

The beauty of this plan is that the reason private investors cannot do it alone is that there is not enough money out there. Who has Buffet's kind of money? Not many. The losses are just too high and there is not enough money out there to do it.

Essentially he is splitting the middle of recapitalizing banks between the government and private investment, which is an excellent idea for many reasons. For one thing, some banks ought to be let go bankrupt. For another, since there is not enough private money alone to do the job, why not combine them to get the most bang for our buck?

I have to praise Mankiw for thinking outside the box on this one.

He also manages to succinctly identify the problem with out blaming anyone.

The potential problem here is that the losses are so high that even with a 50% boost, there may still not be enough money, but it is certainly a good start for discussion.
9 comment(s)

kevin wrote on Oct 10, 2008 9:50 AM:

" I don't know if I agree about your point that there is not enough money. Some economists have written that our problems are partly due to TOO MUCH money out there. That's what happened to the oil commodities and drove up the price.

Everyone is waiting for the market to find the bottom. At that point you better get out of the way or you will get stampeded by people trying to buy... "

steph wrote on Oct 10, 2008 11:21 AM:

" Just what exactly is the value of something nobody wants?

That's the problem. What is the value of phantom assets, like credit default swaps, or companies that produce no tangible goods nor services?

How much is your home worth? To you, or to a potential buyer?

Some of the value of Americans' "investments" will not be realized for years or decades, if at all. And we're in for a tailspin, as more people lose their jobs, as more people have to pay cash for their goods and services--or don't buy at all.

There's nothing left to stir in the pot! Average folks, it turns out, CAN'T afford every luxury known to man! And so the economy has to collapse, like a bad souffle.

But, let's not forget, MOST homeowners are NOT going to default on their loans, and there ARE excellent investments out there, businesses that are financially responsible and produce vital g/s that people need and will continue to purchase.

It's going to be painful, either way, is all I'm saying. We're paying now for all our excesses. Hope we all learn something from this--you CAN'T get something for nothing. "

BILL wrote on Oct 10, 2008 12:17 PM:

" Because the Federal Reserve, Dept. of the Treasury and the Security and Exchange Commission have proved in adequate as institutions dealing with a modern global economy look for the beginnings of a new institution to manage predicaments such as the one we now face. Government will need to take a more proactive roll in the economy.

When all the finger pointing by the political gas class is done real solutions to real world problems will have to be found. Financial mechanisms will need to be monitored more closely and regulation will have to be stringently enforced without inhibiting the flexibility necessary to carry on trade and promote innovation.

All the crying about executive pay and greedy Wall Streeters or Freddy and Fanny political contributions is scapegoating make you feel good because it sounds good populism. There is a systemic modern economic problem that cannot be allowed to continue with out some form of control or watchdog function.

For over a year we have been watching the slow slide of housing values without realizing that in many instances they were over valued and over built in the first place. HUD failed miserably and the factor of cronyism played an important part there. Outside of that the investment banking packaging of poor loans was not well-supervised or regulated and spread blindness and poor risk across the globe. Inventive financing led to propping up demand and ignored the role scarcity plays in the market place.

We will need mechanisms that enable us to act quickly in a local as well as in a global manner to cope with worldwide failures directly affecting our well-being. The jury-rigged system we have enjoyed since the end of WWII will not suffice. "

Bill wrote on Oct 10, 2008 4:38 PM:

" For a good assessment of the current problems and offering excellent insight I would recomend you read a man I consier one of the prime reasons for the Election of Ronald Reagan, one Paul Volcker.

He has a very informative address to the Economic Club of New York. The following is a partial quote.

"Until the New York crisis, the country had been free from any sense of financial crisis for more than 40 years. In contrast, today’s financial crisis is the culmination, as I count them, of at least five serious breakdowns of systemic significance in the past 25 years – on the average one every five years. Warning enough that something rather basic is amiss.
Over that time, we have moved from a commercial bank centered, highly regulated financial system, to an enormously more complicated and highly engineered system. Today, much of the financial intermediation takes place in markets beyond effective official oversight and supervision, all enveloped in unknown trillions of derivative instruments. It has been a highly profitable business, with finance accounting recently for 35 to 40 percent of all corporate profits.
It is hard to argue that the new system has brought exceptional benefits to the economy generally".

I found this by clicking on foot note 8 in Wikipedia. if I can say that. Some times the blowgosphere is surprisingly useful and informative. "

napablogger wrote on Oct 10, 2008 10:52 PM:

" Kevin, as far as there not being enough money that is what I read. The problem is that most of the big financial houses are part of the problem. There are few major money people with independent money like Buffet that can throw something at this, at least not enough.

Beyond that, right now the credit markets between banks are frozen and letters of credit are starting to freeze up, which will shut down importing and exporting and lead to world wide depression.

What it means is that someone shipping a good to another country won't ship it because they don't trust the person buying its bank that the person shipping is getting credit from to send it.

The banking markets have failed and the government has to step in or the world economy will melt down. And the world wide governments will have to work together to handle this, which is why the G7 meetings were so important today.

I am finally starting to get my bearings in all this, and I can see that the solution to so many of the problems we are facing, whether that be Iran or this banking crisis, is going to depend on alliances between countries.

It is the breakdown of alliances, civility between people, countries, and an everyone for themselves mentality that is a key central ingredient in all of this. "

glenroy wrote on Oct 10, 2008 11:52 PM:

" The real problem remains unaddressed in this bailout….the individual homeowner trying to hang on to their home ….all the rationalized jingo on this planet won’t change the fact that the mess resulted from political pandering …..

The financial ‘houses’ tumbled as the consequence of Freddie and Fannie selling junk paper to Wall Street pals, guaranteed by us. It’s not even being disputed that both institutions peddling the junk paper ‘managed’ as Democrat appointees. But for a lone exception, key management positions within the other tumbling dominos where either registered Democrat or their financial supporters ‘contributing’ tens of millions in Democrat coffers. Democrat legislation sowed the seeds of this financial meltdown, originally the Carter Administration‘s effort at Social Engineering, then grossly expanded by the Clinton Administration allowing monies to be lent to ‘applicants,’ ‘applicants’ in the broadest context, without any ability to repay, without income verification, employment history, credit worthiness… up to 100% of the purchase, and 125% of the appraised value when refinancing. ‘Applicants’ put zero down…obtained grossly inflated appraisals within weeks, refinanced 125% of the inflated value and walked away without making a payment, thousands did it creating a new class of ‘no income millionaires‘…and House Democrats still refuse returning millions they took…which is part of the bail out.

In 2004 President Bush, with bipartisan assistance, Lieberman and McCain to name two, attempted to reinstate traditional loan qualifying, which was blocked by Frank and Pelosi…along with Obama and the Black Caucus. It is part of the Congressional Record.

Rationalizing, theorizing and politicizing won’t change reality… this meltdown is a Liberal Democrat failure…not Republican, Independent or Moderate..….and no matter how much taxes are raised it won’t ever overcome their incompetence or greed…whichever you choose. "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 11, 2008 12:10 AM:

" glenroy pimps the idea that nobody is at fault execpt the Democrats... balderdash... What a load of elephant dung!

Phil Gramm is the author of the bill that eventually caused the meltdown. But glenroy would have us believe that the author of a bill bears no responsibility for the collapse that grew out of it.

Yes, there are some corporatist Dems and I support bouncing them out of their leadership positions.

However, we have to ask ourselves:

Which Party has said "Government is the PROBLEM" for some 30 YEARS starting with Ronald Reagan?

It was only a bit over a week ago that the Bush appointee to the Securities and Exchange Commission finally put an end to 'Self-Regulation'.

The Republican Party owns the lion's share of the blame for this mess... and that's why the parrots are sqwaking so loud.

~Ruff "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 11, 2008 10:29 AM:

" NB- There is a big difference from the solution to the S&L flameout and the current Bush-Paulsen Bailout plan.

The government merged some failed S&L with other financial institutions that found enough assets to make the acquisition (with government help) wise. Then the RTC took over the failed S&Ls and sold off their assets over time.

This time the government is doing some merging but is only going to buy the toxic assets from the banks leaving them able to engage in the same reprehensible grifting that created the mess in the first place.

I also notice that SO FAR, nobody is talking about restoring the FDR era lawus requiring the separation between investment banks, and commercial banks.

Ex-Republican Senator (now Banking Lobbyist) Phil Gramm's law doing away with that wise level of regulation is the root of all the turmoil in the commerical banking industry.

If commercial banks were not allowed to market what are humorously called 'securities' we could laugh as Wall Street shafted themselves because the investment shysters would not be in the 'same boat' as the American financial system.

Paulsen knows this and that is why the only bailout plans being discussed mainly benefit the Wall Street Weasels.

~Ruff "

skeptic wrote on Oct 12, 2008 10:28 AM:

" it was always considered a crime to offer no money down , interest only loans for homes until a few years ago. it's called predatory lending for a reason. the predators are now given a trillion dollars when 200 billion would have been plenty enough to pay off all the loans on real houses and give all those flippers free houses. of course nobody wants that. it would be a waste of money. but 5 times that much for worthless derivatives seems fine for many of the elite of the country. when 99% of us write congress and say no to the bailout and it still goes forward it makes one think our democracy is at an end.
both candidates and both parties supported this bailout of wall street. the credit bubble is bigger than ever now and will pop with a bigger bang.don't believe the hype. ask your local banker you trust if they invested in these shaky things like credit swaps and they will tell you that's for riskier institutions. they don't have a liquidity problem and are happy to loan to employers with legitimate businesses or people who actually have jobs and a good sized down payment for a home or car. i asked my favorite 2 car dealers if they had cash problems and they both said that was only the dealers offering no money down and no payments for x-months.
calls for a world wide government to fix our problems are naive at best and playing into the hands of the new world order folks at worst. "

Comment Guidelines
The goal of the story comments section at NapaValleyRegister.com is to have an open, thought-provoking, civil community forum for all issues.
What gets your comment posted?
• Staying on topic
• Keeping your comment to 300 words or less
• Avoiding name-calling
• Addressing your comments to the message rather than the messenger
What gets your comment deleted?
• Personal attacks
• Derogatory remarks
• Name-calling of any sort
• Going off-topic
• Hate speech
• Racially-insensitive comments
• Implying guilt of a subject in a crime story before there is a court verdict
• Posting e-mail addresses
• Posting comments of a commercial nature
• POSTING WITH ALL CAPITAL LETTERS
• Linking multiple comments together with "to be continued..." to get around the 300 word limit.
The fine print
- Comments are either approved or denied. We do not edit comments.
- You are welcome to modify and resubmit a denied comment.
- Comments may take several hours to be posted.
- Comments posted are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NapaValleyRegister.com, its employees or its parent company.
- Do you have information on a story? Please go to our virtual newsroom to send us a news tip.
- If you feel a posted comment has violated our guidelines, please contact online@napanews.com or add a comment indicating you have an issue and our moderators will review the comment in question.
Search:
Web Search Powered
By Yahoo! Search
Napa Valley Register on Facebook
Copyright © 2009 Napa Valley Publishing, a member of Lee Enterprises, Inc.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy