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The economy is on fire
Monday, October 06, 2008
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The economy is on fire and Congress, the Media, and the voters are all fiddling while it burns. We need this bail out, and we need it fast, and it is bailing out not just the big money interests, it is bailing out you and me, it is bailing out everyone. Not enough people seem to get that urgency, and we need to, fast.

What a credit market freeze means is that runs on banks will ensue. In fact, they have already started to some extent. Sunday night on 60 minutes Henry Paulson said that what motivated him to propose this dramatic rescue is that on his computer monitor he saw runs on commercial banks begin one day the week before last. Big runs, $40 billion plus runs. He called Bernanke and they both agreed drastic action was needed immediately.
Runs on the banks are the literal action that happened that brought on the great depression. If people lose confidence that their money is safe in the bank, they try to get it out. Already people are shifting money around to make sure they are covered by insurance on deposits, gold sales are soaring, and some small businesses are refusing to take checks and insisting on cashiers checks, according to a panel of small business experts interviewed on Fox business yesterday. Many of the early warning signs are falling into place.

We do not have time to fiddle and diddle. The national conversation sounds like some kind of pathetic encounter group, "well I am angry about this, well I am angry about that, well you did this to me, well you did that to me," yada yada yada. Grow up people. We need action. You don’t have time for all this blaming and ideological one-upmanship.
The history of economic crashes shows that the majority consensus consistently denied the problem right up until total disaster. Do not be lulled by the fact that the market ran up today. It could just as easily run down tomorrow, or up again another day then totally crash for a week, then the rest of the year. No one really knows, that is the problem, but we do know that we are on the verge of a cliff and the entire dithering going on is foolishness.

At any moment a run could start due to lack of confidence, and if that gets any sort of momentum it could be difficult to stop. It is like a stack of dominoes, once they start to fall they all go, and with any kind of momentum there will be no stopping and we could be in deep trouble for years.
What we are bailing out is not just the big investment community; we are bailing out your paycheck, your pension, your job and your bank account. Just because there is a lot of blame to go around, let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot to make a point.

The voters are having a hissy fit, not unlike the Republicans who voted against this because Nancy Pelosi chose that moment to give one of the most ungracious, unleaderlike speeches I have heard in a long time. But voting against it for that reason is just being a bratty blamey kid.

And don’t tell me they didn’t do it, I was watching live television and saw John Boehner come out and say exactly that as soon as the vote was over.

One thing this is about is the whole issue of blame. Blame is a waste of time. Once we solve the problem we can go back and redo policies as needed. The bail out we had was good enough, and we can adjust any problems as we go.

But the economy is on fire, and before it burns to the ground and it is too late to save it, we need Congress to pass a bail out plan. We need to save confidence in the system before it is too late.

If you need to see what is going to happen if we don‚t get the problem fixed, go here:

Write to Mike Thompson and tell him you want a fix passed, now, click here.
32 comment(s)

a teacher wrote on Oct 1, 2008 10:41 AM:

" If the American public seems uncincerned by the current crisis, it's because it isn't being explained well enough by people the voting public trust. The "solution" has been called a "Wall St. Bailout". Just what I want to do, spend taxes to help greedy rich guys recover their losses.

And who is doing the explaining? The same people who have been telling us that the economy is sound for the last 8 years. The same people who told us we HAD to invade Iraq for those weapons of mass destruction that they had proof about. With the same it MUST HAPPEN NOW! tone.

Can you blame us for saying "yeah, right!"? "

kevin wrote on Oct 1, 2008 11:54 AM:

" I've already written to Mike Thompson and thanked him for voting against the bailout. I hope he does the same the next time it comes up.

There is no point in bailing out a failed sytem. Congress did nothing to correct the problems with Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac BEFORE and they will do nothing AFTER the bailout. It's not "politically correct". Libs (like some here online) would be irate that Congress was trying to discrimate against minorities "who are just trying to get ahead..."

I have a hearty squirrel population nearby and plenty of ammo. I will do just fine after the crash.... "

Bill wrote on Oct 1, 2008 1:39 PM:

" Nice rant NB. Looks like you have been saving up. “Runs on the banks are the literal action that happened that brought on the great depression.” No

: The cause of the great depression was not bank runs they were a result of poor money policy by the fed and no deposit insurance ask Bernake and read Friedman “A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960” a supposed conservative bible. Or try Hayek and others. How about an unsustainable credit boom for its cause? There were multiple causes not the least was the combination of unequal distribution of wealth throughout the 1920's, and the extensive stock market speculation that took place during the latter part that same decade. The maldistribution of wealth in the 1920's existed on many levels. Money was distributed unevenly between the rich and the middle-class and working class, between industry and agriculture within the United States, and between the U.S. and Europe. This imbalance of wealth created an unstable economy. The excessive speculation in the late 1920's kept the stock market artificially high, but eventually lead to large market crashes. These market crashes, combined with the maldistribution of wealth, economic policy (Smoot-Hawley), bank failures, deflation, drought and agricultural conditions caused the American economy to capsize.

Should the economy capsize again due to the speculative avarice there will be much more than a few draconian regulations imposed. The current panicky lame duck leadership is not actively trying to convince the public or its own party of the dire consequences of a failure to act. Perhaps it is more of a credibility problem than a blame problem. "

Bill wrote on Oct 1, 2008 1:39 PM:

" If a few people start jumping out of windows, starting at the White House, maybe we would see some real results in congress. The only problem with that is the fall is not far enough for them or the financiers. "

napablogger wrote on Oct 1, 2008 5:10 PM:

" Bill, I mean besides policy, the literal action that took place as the result of the policy was the run on the banks. I am not trying to argue reasons for the great depression.

We are seeing overnite lending rates soaring now, banks holding checks for longer periods before they redeem them, all kinds of transfers and withdrawals going on, etc, etc.

There is a tipping point that will cause the system to collapse and no one knows where it is.

teacher, when you say that you sound just like the House Republicans who didn't like Pelosi's speech. Are you really willing to let the economy collapse because you don't like Bush?

Kevin, I guess it is an honest answer but I don't believe you. You don't want to lose your job or watch your neighbors lose theirs.

We are playing with fire here, people, watch that you don't get burned.

Serious financial people are saying that we are on the brink. Non serious financial people are filling the airwaves telling people that we can solve this by eliminating captial gains taxes and other such nonsense.

There is an utter lack of leadership on both sides of the aisle. Looks like it is time for the American people to lead, and I hope you show more open mindedness and wisdom than bawling about somebody else making money besides you so you are taking your toys home and refuse to play. "

kevin wrote on Oct 1, 2008 7:32 PM:

" You CAN'T have leadership is this situation!

If they REALY told the American people what was going on, what they were allowing to happen, the people WOULD revolt! "

a teacher wrote on Oct 1, 2008 7:47 PM:

" NB: It's not about whether I like Bush or not. It's about making a case. Basically their case is: pay us the money, or else. It' sounds a lot like "protection money", you know, like your window might break on account I might throw a rock through it, or I might accidentally set fire to your house. What is in this for the average American?

Now I know that this is serious. I read Paul Krugman, he thinks it's serious, so does Warren Buffet. I don't think that the average American reads their columns. Our leaders are not making a case.

Now today I heard something that got my attention. Steve Garimendi said on Market Place that the state may not be able to borrow money that it needs to do things like pay salaries, like mine. OUCH!

Just the same, in the same report, there was a list of the "sweeteners" that were added to the bill the Senate passed to convince reluctant senators to vote for the bailout (still the word used). Why can't they just pass a bill to fix this mess? "

napablogger wrote on Oct 2, 2008 1:28 AM:

" The list of sweeteners is unreal and that is why they added it. But it is what their voters are telling them to do. When they are forced to pass a bill like this, suddenly it is Christmas in Washington. It is disgusting. And the taxpayers get to pay. I wish the taxpayers would get as mad at all the pork as they do about the bail out.

I don't think Paulsen or Barney Frank came across like that, pay us or else. Actually, I just haven't seen that. I think they were afraid to say how bad it is for fear that everyone would lose confidence, it was more like that.

But when I saw Paulsen he was not hyperbolic, which I liked, he is not a politician. But when he said the credit markets froze, and that banks did not want to accept each others commercial paper, I knew what it meant.

I think Krugman and many other economists have soft pedalled it as well, because they are afraid of being called wrong. If they pass the bail out and it works, then everyone is going to say, see, we didn't need it.

And you will never be able to prove them wrong. "

a teacher wrote on Oct 2, 2008 6:26 AM:

" It was Bill Lockyear who I heard on NPR, I get those guys mixed up.

However listening to the news, I'm even angrier. To "sweeten " the deal, the Senate added $110 billion in tax breaks. Where's that money coming from? If this is the best deal to fix the problem, why does it need sweeteners?

AND are we sure this will work? I heard an economist this morning tell us that the problem is under capitalization of the banks. Accordingly, we should inject capital into the system in exchange for a piece of the banks. Will that work? beats me, I'm a math teacher, not an economist. But, I prefer the prospect of owning something of value rather than buying some gambling addicts IOUs. "

Bill wrote on Oct 2, 2008 10:05 AM:

" Economists soft pedal everything generally they are certain of only one thing and that is their positions are all based on assumptions of the uncertain human condition. No one is certain that the $700 billion will alleviate the problem just the queasy feeling that doing nothing may be worse, another parallel to the thirties.

When any economist tells you he knows something for certain you can look at their Nobel Prize and ask is that the best you can earn with all your knowledge? Very, very few of them are in any market much less advising on investments. Historically I believe the most financially successful of well-known economists were Ricardo and Keynes, not a good track record to rely on. At least people like Buffet have a demonstrable ability to under stand markets but it would be too liberal to suggest that he might make a better treasury secretary than say Gramm.

It would be nice to pickup the NVR or open one of its articles here and read a sound description or analysis of what exactly is being proposed rather than the catch all words of bailout and sweeteners, but the WSJ and NYT are not much better or the other major information providers.

Also, a revolt now and then is a good thing... I believe that’s Jefferson, only this time it could spell the end for an inflexible national party. "

kevin wrote on Oct 2, 2008 10:17 AM:

" It will be interesting to see what "earmarks" Mike Thompson requires to get his support for this bill. He did the right thing earlier in the week, voting against this give away. It's the same bill now, despite the rhetoric, except it has all the "goodies" added. ($6 Million to a toy company?)

How much is your integrity worth, Mike? "

Bill wrote on Oct 2, 2008 11:28 AM:

" Just can't get past that elephant's trunk or donkey's tail can we?

Myopia is its own consolation. "

freeport56 wrote on Oct 2, 2008 3:56 PM:

" If Warren Buffet thought this was serious why is he spending $8 Billion to buy prefferred stock. He is bottom fishing for a good deal.


Just so you all understand, both sides of the isle have contributed to this mess. Those that protected the bad paper that Freddie and Fannie were pushing, and those that did not scream loud enouigh about what was happening.

reality is not everyone is destined to own a home. There is more to it than just mortage payments, like predatory lending. "

kevin wrote on Oct 2, 2008 6:03 PM:

" There is a DIFFERENCE, freeport between "not doing enough" to stop evil and someone who actively pursues "doing" evil.

Yes, the Republicans SHOULD have done more, but the Democrat financial meltdown is a DIRECT result of their malfeasance... "

NVGal wrote on Oct 2, 2008 8:22 PM:

" Credit markets are frozen for two reasons 1) banks are hording cash because they are afraid they have to take further write downs on these “toxic assets”, if they have to take further write downs then there is a chance that they will be viewed as the next to go and there will be a run on cash. 2) the least understood reason and probably the most important reason to buy these assets is that the market for buying debt has dried up. Meaning that once a loan is made, there is no market to resell it.

Buying these assets now only will only get the commercial paper moving, it will do nothing for people like you and I who may be looking for loans in the short term. It will also give the illusion that markets are working better than they really are. So do we need it, yes, do we hate it more double yes.

I don’t blame people for being mad and I am glad that this bill did not pass last week. We are forced into a situation that says we need to bailout those most responsible in order to save ourselves. We must save the jobs first of these unscrupulous and unwise bankers that helped to perpetuate this mess before we can save ourselves. We must save the homes of these bankers in the Hamptons before we get to save our own. What kind of a deal is that?
This bailout is only the paramedic coming to bring the patient back to life. This is not surgery to correct the problem, or the painful diet and exercise program that will get the patient healthy again. "

kevin wrote on Oct 2, 2008 9:11 PM:

" There isn't going to BE a diet or exercise, NVGal. You know nothing will be done by EITHER Party to rectify the problem... "

napablogger wrote on Oct 2, 2008 10:51 PM:

" Well, I think we need the bail out and then we go to fix the problems. At least it has woken the voters up. They have to regulate the mortgage markets and the investment community better. In some ways regulations should be eased.

Mark to market has to be reformed, the problem if you do away with it all together is that some companies like Enron will value a house that is a hole in the ground with boards over it at $10 billion. So there has to be some real thought put into this.

It just bothers me that all your average voters think they are completely innocent. We all sound like economic experts now, what were we doing when we were spending the money from our equity loans, demanding a clean up of the mortgage mess we knew was going on ?

Did we cut up and throw away our credit cards? Did we vote against Bush for the prescription drug program? Are we writing Mike Thompson to tell him not to get any earmarks for Napa out of the bail out bill?

There is an attitudinal problem somewhere on the part of the voters, I am trying to smoke it out. "

NVGal wrote on Oct 4, 2008 7:53 AM:

" Kevin you are right. Sometimes my optimism takes over reality. "

kevin wrote on Oct 4, 2008 11:21 AM:

" NV, deficeit spending, earmarks and consumer credit cards are bad, but they didn't get us in this mess.

Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac got us in this mess. They were buying and securitizing bad mortgages long before the investment companies were allowed to. The Community Reinvestment Act got us in this mess. FDR, LBJ, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank got us in this mess.

And I didn't vote for ANY of them!

Banks have been making sub prime loans for years. I was forced to take one out back in the early 80's. And while I was NOT happy, I was LUCKY and the housing prices kept going up while interest rates went down and I could re-finance the new HIGHER principal. (I saw one of the bills Arnold vetoed would have OUTLAWED this type of loan.) I'm glad I had the opportunity to take advantage of the market at the time. If I had gambled and LOST would I still feel the same? I like to think I have enough integrity that I wouldn't have blamed the bank.

So be careful where you point that finger of blame. Point it in the mirror if you must, but if you point it at me, you might only pull back a stub! "

kevin wrote on Oct 4, 2008 4:56 PM:

" oops, my comment of 11:21 was directed to NB of course, NOT NVgal "

Raven wrote on Oct 4, 2008 5:11 PM:

" don't forget those on the other side of the aisle kevin......the blame game casts a wide net.... "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 5, 2008 6:46 PM:

" Soooo, kevin, you are telling us that you are one of the folks that Dwayne says is responsible for this mess?

Have you taken off the tip of his finger?

;o)

And why are corporatist Republicans so angry at people like you? Are you mad at you?

;o)

It's sad to hear somebody who admits taking a spin on that big roulette wheel themselves but didn't lose... have so little empathy for those who just like them took a spin and lost.

~Ruff "

kevin wrote on Oct 6, 2008 12:06 PM:

" Well, NB, it looks like the taxpayers got taken for a ride again! Congress milks them for $850 Billion and the Stock Market responds by TANKING ANYWAY. Good job, Mike (and your crony Pelosi...) "

Raven wrote on Oct 6, 2008 5:19 PM:

" yeah kevin...the bill is passed on friday and the crisis isnt solved by Monday morning....sure sign of a failure if ya ask me... "

kevin wrote on Oct 6, 2008 5:49 PM:

" I'm glad to see we finally agree on something... "

Raven wrote on Oct 7, 2008 11:01 AM:

" Did anyone really expect that overnight the crisis would be gone....if you did, I have this bridge for sale for you kevin.... "

kevin wrote on Oct 7, 2008 6:01 PM:

" Raven, we've ALREADY been sold the bridge, the swamp, the bog, the landfill, and the toxic mortgage derivitive.

What was the point of "providing stability" to the market if it didn't provide ANY stability?

Seems like a case of throwing good money after bad... "

Raven wrote on Oct 7, 2008 9:16 PM:

" no money form the bailout/rescue plan has been thrown anywhere yet kevin.... "

napablogger wrote on Oct 8, 2008 1:15 AM:

" Kevin, this is going to go on for weeks, and we are going to have to do a lot more than this bail out. As I mentioned in one of my articles, that was just the starting point.

We are going to have to gaurantee all bank accounts a lot higher than 250K.

We are going to be facing more bail outs. As you can see, Europe and Asia are starting to have similar problems.

This is huge and the government has to act. "

amigo wrote on Oct 9, 2008 11:30 PM:

" Its the New world Orders' plan. Destroy americas dollar through market crash and create a new currency called the "amero"
Next step to central banking system. "

kevin wrote on Oct 10, 2008 11:06 AM:

" That nearby squirrel colony is starting to look like a valuable resource.

Anyone interested in the IPO? "

Raven wrote on Oct 10, 2008 1:03 PM:

" I am almost afraid to ask.....amigo, your source for this is?.....btw....we have a central banking system in the US already...the Federal Reserve System acts in that capacity "

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