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One last time on credit crisis
Saturday, October 04, 2008
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11 a.m.One last time on the credit crisis, then I promise to stop, but I have to post this.

I received this today from a reliable source, this was written by a staffer for a Congressman in Washington to my friend and I am certain it is legit. Take it for what you will but it confirms what many other sources are saying about the credit crunch. Note that we are already getting worse and worse bail out packages due to the porkish way our system works. It is only going to get worse, not better.
"My boss will probably vote against. I personally think we need to do something. The following is my take on this, not necessarily my boss‚ so please erase any reference to his name if you pass this on the following ramble.

"Most of the media reporting this last week and a half was misrepresenting a very serious situation instead of accurately reporting what the problem actually is and accurately educating the common joe on what is facing the nation: a lack of confidence in our financial system that if exacerbated will lead to an even bigger decline in our economic system that will touch each and every one of us.  
"When banks refuse to loan to another bank for an overnight loan, a supposedly safe loan, we are in big trouble. This is not a 'bailout' for anyone, including Wall Street. If anything, it's a bailout for you and me. It's a bailout for all of the homeowners who've gotten second, third and sometimes four mortgages against their home for additions, for kid's education loans, for a new expensive car or for a 50‚ digital TV. Our nation as a whole has been on a spending spree beyond their ability to pay and now the piper is at the door.

"The financial world is based mostly on confidence; we are in a time of a great lack of confidence in the US financial system, both here in the US, and worse, overseas. America spent $700 billion a year more than we produced for the last seven years. Where did the extra money come from? Overseas. Chinese workers who work long hours and who do not have a consumer mentality squirreled away their savings and their financial institutions invested their money here in the US.
"If investors overseas lose faith in the US, we will not have the much needed infusions of financial liquidity from overseas to come out of this situation. We need to restore faith in the US money markets ASAP or the crisis will become even more expensive, more problematic and longer to correct. In the presidential election year of 1984, Reagan went to the Dem Banking chairs in the House and Senate advocating fixing the S&L problem right away; the cost then would have been $8 billion.They refused, the crisis went on for five more years and cost the taxpayer $159 billion. We need to act and act now.

"This is not a problem of 'Wall Street greed,' it is really a problem of Main Street greed. This economic crisis is based on the rapidly declining values in the housing market. After decades of increasing home values, and people borrowing against the increase in the paper value of their homes year after year,

"Look how big this problem is with 'only' 4.5% of current mortgages in default. What will it be if it becomes 8%? 12%? 16%?

"Lending is already tight. Financial institutions are hoarding their capital because no one knows the value of the assets of the borrower, whether it is another banking institution, a business or the man on the street. Therefore they are not lending.  

"Businesses are not getting the working capital loans they need to produce their services or products. If they can't get these loans, they will lay off workers. If workers get laid off, they cannot pay their mortgages or rent, purchase goods and services, or even that cup of coffee at Starbucks. Then the kid behind the counter loses his job, keeping him from paying his landlord, his car insurance, his grocer, his clothing store, and his hair stylist. They in turn will not be able to pay the people that provide them goods and services.

"This will cause a downward economic spiral further and further until it will take longer and longer to work our way out."

 
14 comment(s)

napablogger wrote on Oct 3, 2008 12:31 PM:

" When I wrote this the bail out had not yet happened, thank God it did before things got worse. Now let's pray it works, it is not going to solve all these problems, it is just an important first step.

I just got a letter from Mike Thompson that acknowledged that he was not going to vote for it without including regulatory reform, but now has for reasons I have been pounding away about. We don't have time for that.

As Kevin pointed out, I am not an economist, so how did I know that 2-3 weeks ago and most of our Congress and Senate apparently did not?

My answer is that people are more interested in playing politics and placing blame than finding out the truth. And that applies to voters as much as elected officials.

Here is one interesting paragraph from Thompson:

Within the last two weeks, the Arcata Community Recycling Center has seen their interest payments balloon to four times their normal rate. Standard Structures in Windsor was about to finalize a $10 million order from a Texas company until they got word this week that the project was stalled because of the credit crisis. There are fifty jobs tied to that one contract. Many more of our small businesses will be forced to lay off workers or wait on hiring new workers if they don't have access to credit. "

Bill wrote on Oct 3, 2008 2:29 PM:

" “MAIN STREET GREED!!!” with friends in powerful places and mouthpieces to shift the responsibility on to a credulous public it is no wonder we are in a mess. The consumer society is the culprit not overbuilt and inflated housing beyond the ability of wage earners to participate in “the ownership society.”

Its all you greedy voters that actually believe you have something called equity who are responsible for the failure of 5% of all mortgages and if you don’t give your banker more tax money god is gonna kill him. Sounds like an evangelical T.V. preacher to me. The trillions of dollars that slosh about the world are the savings of that Chinese slave building the Grand Coolie Dam or just maybe a terrorist Sunni Wahabi in his sand hole.

CRAP!! And it smells like it looks like it just might be it. The people responsible are the bankers and financiers with the access to information not the voter. The Companies that hire hundreds if noit thousands of researchers and analysts to peer into the arcane workings of the financial sphere and knowledgably mislead the public are responsible.

The asymmetrical access of the public to real information plus the specific knowledge and time to process it is a definite problem but sheer polemics like this does not serve to change that situation. The only asset the American worker has that can bring him any financial reward or safety is his home. What little he can save is eaten away not by government or his own avarice but by bankers and financial institutions gambling on the latest belief system of hedge funds or sub-prime mortgages or economic scheme to squeeze that last penny he has earned into the institution of the moment. "

a teacher wrote on Oct 3, 2008 3:36 PM:

" No NB! In the 80's and the 90's Wall St went after the Middle Class. ANYONE could be a stock market tycoon. Then we had the "dot com" bust. Where next to find easy money?

Well, how about the lower middle class and the poor. Bankruptcy laws allowed anyone with a huge credit card debt to get out. So the laws were changed (Biden had a big part in that). That's when I noticed that all of the sudden I was getting 2 or 3 credit card offers DAILY in the mail. Easy credit for 21% or more.

That's when we started seeing "Flip This House", "You to can be a house owner", "Live the American dream on easy terms". Credit was easy to get, but hard to live with. It was rammed down our throat.

BUY NOW, PAY LATER!

Behind the scenes the real cost of the easy credit was being hidden and shifted around like a hot potato and guess who's left holding it. The US Taxpayer. AND if we don't do something dire consequences will ensue.

BIG SURPRISE!

I believe it's a big problem. I believe we have to act. BUT, don't point the finger at me and my fellow Americans.

Same old, same old:Privitize profit, socialize loss. "

Bill wrote on Oct 3, 2008 4:16 PM:

" Without regulation we have most certainly bought the proverbial pig in a poke and with plenty of pork.

The idea that the public is just too ignorant or too involved in blame and should be sufficiently mollified by cries of great depression if you don’t stop your stupid reliance on “those in the know.” Your own clairvoyance should have kicked in a lot earlier but not one of your columns ever lays out any real information other than opinion or hear say. No structured information on how these credit crises came about just “risky behavior by wall street or Freddy and Fanny were bad programs clap trap. How big a fool do you have to be before you realize that the small amount of bad loans in the mortgage market is insignificant when bundled and spread worldwide. There are great winners and losers every day but there is a tipping point and to believe that the sub-prime loans are the root cause is an idiot’s assumption. The root cause is the watchers were not watching for that tipping point where risk is not a prudent course.

Exactly how many millions/billions of bad loans are we talking about? The answer cannot be, no body knows. Yet that is exactly what the public is faced with. The Treasury is supposed to know the Fed is supposed to know and the SEC is supposed to know and the banking and financial institutions are supposed to know that’s what the vigorish in what we pay for transactions is all about the load in the funds and the charges for managing money. There are standards and if they are not strict enough or enforced than we must make certain that they are made strict and enforced. "

Lee wrote on Oct 3, 2008 4:23 PM:

" I'm not sure who I will believe anymore. I definitely understand what aTeacher is saying. I have owned my house for over 25 years. Over the past 7 or 8 years, my husband and I have received multiple telephone calls from brokers, trying to get us to refinance our mortgage. Making exorbitant claims that they could give us 1% interest and all sorts of other things. At first I actually argued with them about my need to refinance. They would ask what my rate was and I would tell them it was none of their business. They were extremely persistent. It got to the point when ever I heard it was a broker that I would just hang up. Some of them would actually call us back 3 times in one day. We put our name on the do not call list. Some of them when we would remind them that we were on the do not call list would get "nasty". I have watched congressional comittees investigating this with people giving their testimony under oath about brokers pressure. Also have seen testimony from brokers who quit selling houses because they wouldn't do the pressuring. I have been a frugal person all my life and have owned 2 other homes before this one but I don't really think the whole blame belongs on "main street". The middle class has been being squeezed these last number of years and I think bankers and credit card companies had a lot to do with this also. I've also gotten multiple continuing offers for credit cards and my shredder is definetly been working overtime. I hope what congress has done helps. "

kevin wrote on Oct 3, 2008 5:59 PM:

" I have read that the total mortagages amount to about $12 Trillion. If 5% are being forclosed that would come to about $500 Billion (if I didn't drop a decimal somewhere.) So $700 Billion sounds about right.

So what "goodies" did Mike end up trading his vote for? What did "we" get?? (It's almost like Christmas...) "

a teacher wrote on Oct 3, 2008 7:06 PM:

" No Kevin, it's the ANTI-Christmas, where we give a wonderful present and we get coal in our stockings.

It's the thought that counts. "

Bauhausfan wrote on Oct 3, 2008 11:29 PM:

" From the NY Times. Deregulation is the reason this happened.

"Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control…

On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.

They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr…

The decision, changing what was known as the net capital rule, was completed and published in The Federal Register a few months later.

With that, the five big independent investment firms were unleashed.

In loosening the capital rules, which are supposed to provide a buffer in turbulent times, the agency also decided to rely on the firms’ own computer models for determining the riskiness of investments, essentially outsourcing the job of monitoring risk to the banks themselves." "

kevin wrote on Oct 4, 2008 9:03 AM:

" They still had to maintain 5% UNLIKE Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac who only had to maintain 2.5%.

You can spin all you want, but the truth is that the GOVERNMENT is at fault for this "crisis". Every time governement gets involved, every time, they only make things WORSE... "

Newview wrote on Oct 4, 2008 12:20 PM:

" It all started with SPECIAL INTEREST and SOFT MONEY. That is the catalyst for our governments political mis-directions. In the days of political duels, should you have been an American politician caught in the act of bribery you would have at least suffered a caning or risked dying by challenge and duel. Oh yeah! Don't forget the TAR and FEATHERS, ooh so not comfortable. "

freeport56 wrote on Oct 4, 2008 3:35 PM:

" It started with the wrong belief that everyone should own a home! Lenders were writing mortgages for people who could not afford a home. They gave them adjustable rates and when they inflated to 5-10 times what they could pay..bust! Wall street traded in this toxic paper to make even more money.

Fannie and Freddie are the culprets here and should be disolved. Their former CEOs should be prosecuted for fraud and their property and assests seized.

That is why I am firing any Politician with Incumbant after their name. They have scr--ed us once too many times . If you think the feds are bad, by the end of next June California will be $170 Billion in the whole. Way to go Dems! "

Raven wrote on Oct 4, 2008 5:14 PM:

" if you want fannie and freddie done away fine...but dont forget lehman brothers and all the other investment banks who were more than happy to play the game when it worked to their favor "

steph wrote on Oct 5, 2008 9:53 AM:

" So we bail out the banks so they can continue to lend money to Americans who will continue to "buy" things they cannot afford, on credit on top of credit. I've seen it myself--the trips to the beauty salon, the top-of-the-line home remodels, the new gas-guzzling car, the trips overseas, and on and on, and now we're in a crisis. Not to mention trading fake paper assets--this is how we're losing big time.

Yesterday NPR ran a great article on "This American Life" which you can read on the NPR website. I encourage one and all to read "Was the Bailout Bill A Good Idea" and listen to the podcast but only if you can afford to lose your mind in anger.

Right now we have a bunch of people on Main Street and Wall Street who took big risks without any capital collateral, and they've lost big, and you and I who have been responsible? We get to pony up to get them out of the mess. Those on Main Street will lose the most, and those on Wall Street will continue with business as usual, because it's so vitally important to Protect the American Economy. BULL-ESS.

You and I understand, don't we, that if you gamble big, you might lose big. You might win big, and good for you, but when you lose big, don't come cryin' to me about it. Well, over there on Wall Street, it's all good. You and I will cover it.

Our politicians are the WORST people to have in charge right now. Too bad Eliot Spitzer couldn't keep his head in the game; we could use him now. (Time to forgive him and get him back working for the American people?) "

steph wrote on Oct 5, 2008 11:20 PM:

" Oh, NB. Have you read about the credit default swaps over at AIG?

Time magazine has a fabulous article in March, "Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?"

Wow! WE. GOT. S[r&w&d! Big-time.

Warren Buffett calls them Investments of Mass Destruction. He trades in them, too.

Who's to blame? Congress, the same folks who are here to save us with their 700 billion dollar pork-infested plan. The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 was never even debated. I bet those congressional so-called leaders made out big. Donkeys and Elephants--all pigs.

They're ALL crooks. Why am I surprised? Well, I'm pretty peeved.

So, yeah. Let's all roll over and let them do as they please. You and I don't even stand a chance.

That bail-out was so necessary, wasn't it? "

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