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Economic crisis is all about the dollar
Friday, October 03, 2008
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For those of you counting, we are about to pass another dubious milestone and reach the unheard debt amount of $10 trillion. Adding another trillion in record time prompted the Economist to dryly remark, “at least it hasn’t hit a zillion yet.” Maybe it will. Bush says we need to print up a quick $750 billion in order to save the economy, though many feel it will be closer to $3 trillion.

The problem here is that printing paper money may help in the short term but will hasten the collapse of the economy. An economic collapse brought on by debt is like an organism infected by cancer. On the other hand, a fiscal collapse is more like a massive coronary. Uncle Sam may be dead before he hits the floor.
It has been said that “He who holds the gold rules.” Throughout the ages, when gold was used, and laws protected honest commerce, productive nations thrived. However, when wealthy nations — those with powerful armies — lived beyond their means, they had to use fiat money.

The terms fiat currency relates to types of currency whose usefulness results, not from any intrinsic value or guarantee that it can be converted into gold or another currency, but instead from a government’s order (fiat) that it must be accepted as a means of payment.
Those nations and their economies always failed.

Today gold no longer rules. Instead, “He who prints the money makes the rules.” And the rules are similar: Compel foreign countries to produce and subsidize the country with military superiority and control over the monetary printing presses. Dollar dominance began in 1944 at the Bretton Woods agreement. Due to our political and military muscle, and because Fort Knox held a mountain of gold, the world accepted the dollar as the reserve currency. With no controls, the Federal Reserve printed more money than we had gold for the next 27 years. This sham was exposed in 1971 when the French wanted to cash in their surplus dollars only to find there wasn’t enough gold.
To rescue the dollar, it had to be backed by something of value before becoming interchangeable with Monopoly money. In 1973, the Nixon Administration struck a deal with OPEC to price oil in and only accept dollars for all transactions. We, in turn, promised to protect various oil-rich kingdoms from any internal or external threat. Thus the birth of the petrodollar. The agreement with OPEC has allowed tremendous artificial demand and strength allowing the Federal Reserve to print money at will. Since most nations need to import oil, they needed dollars. This arrangement kept the Third World mired in poverty. To get dollars, they had to keep their natural resources and labor cheap. There are several ways to bring these ethereal days to an end and one is if OPEC decides to accept currency other than the dollar for oil. This could bankrupt us in a very short time.

In November 2000, Iraq demanded euros for oil. The first Bush Cabinet meeting (January 2001) was dominated by how to get rid of Hussein and Iraq back on the dollar. There was no concern of his military or terrorism prowess. It was instead about his attack on the integrity of the dollar.

Another example was when Venezuela floated the idea of switching to the euro in mid-2001. Immediately there was a coup attempt against Chavez, reportedly with CIA assistance.

Real threats come from countries who are incapable of threatening us militarily but able to dismantle us economically. This is the threat we see from Iran. Since 2004, Iran has been talking of switching to the euro and we have repeatedly put Teheran in our cross-hairs. The fear is not a fundamental Islamic revolution causing Middle East countries to fall like dominoes, but that there may be a domino effect where they will all stop taking dollars.

And now matters are made worse because we are essentially printing money to rescue an economy that has gone down the wrong path. The arrangement between the Federal Reserve printing money backed by Treasury notes, both worthless, is check-kiting at its worse.

Warren Buffett put it in perspective last week when he said, “No one knows who is skinny-dipping until the tide goes out.”

The truth of the matter is this: Our currency is backed by our military in the sense that anyone choosing to not accept it will get a thumping by our armed forces. Dollar superiority depends our strong military, and our strong military depends on the dollar. Ironically, no outside military force is needed to tear this relationship apart and with it would go the economic engine that powered what was the American Century.

There’s a new world waiting and it is not promising.

(Lydecker lives in Napa.)
11 comment(s)

kevin wrote on Oct 3, 2008 4:49 AM:

" So if we can't use gold or petroleum, what SHOULD we use to back up our dollar?

What happened to that whole "peak oil" thing, Jim? Why is oil heading south of $90 per barrel? "

Ruff Limblog wrote on Oct 3, 2008 8:46 AM:

" kevin - the price of oil and gasoline pretty much always drops before an election. The bigger the spike before the election the bigger the drop.

This is no coincidence because corporate financial analysts know that some rubes will fall for the same scam election cycle after election cycle.

However, it IS still just a mildly interesting coincidence that 'R'epublican and 'R'ube start with 'R'.

However, gasoline does not drop as far as it rose after that last election, the general trend as been relentless ever since 'Peak Oil' was achieved in the US in the 1970s. When I was a teenager in the 1960s, gas was just $0.12.9 a gallon get the idea?

Since gasoline was $0.99.9 in August of 1999 and it's about $3.60 now after a post-election peak of something well over $4 a gallon the over-all trend is VERY CLEAR!

The economically literate know that when Bush cronies print up another trillion bucks and gives a huge chunk of it to China that China gets MORE able to outbid the USA for terrorist oil in our own debased currency.

Mr. Lydecker has a valid point, and Republican spin is... still useless for financial guidance for anybody who values reality over ideology.

~Ruff "

Train wrote on Oct 3, 2008 9:35 AM:

" This is one of the best commentarys I have read in the Register. Stayed on point. Specific examples. No name calling. A minimum of exagerating. Not to mention, he's probably right. Thank you Jim Lydecker. AND " So if we can't use gold or petroleum, what SHOULD we use to back up our dollar?" answer might be, Real Wealth. Real money grows out of real productivity which is then stored in the money. Right now there is no there there. At any rate, you better back up our dollar with something that has worth. What are we making that is worth anything to the world? Manufacturing what besides printing the money? Natural resorces? WAR? "

LMW wrote on Oct 3, 2008 9:59 AM:

" and who neglected to prevent the WAVE!!! "

kevin wrote on Oct 3, 2008 10:27 AM:

" That's strange, back in 1979 when I was young and Jimmy Carter was President, gas was $3.25 per gallon(adjusted for inflation).

My analysis is that when we have Democrats in charge, we get higher prices FOR EVERYTHING... "

MyWrites wrote on Oct 3, 2008 3:06 PM:

" One flaw in Kevin's Jimmy Carter analogy - remember OPEC? At least we didn't see Carter smoozing with the Saudis like GWB. "

kevin wrote on Oct 3, 2008 6:31 PM:

" I think my analogy still holds, yes during Jimmy's Presidency the price of gas was driven up by OPEC. And now the price of gas is being driven up by Pelosi and the Democrats.

Almost identical situations.... "

Raven wrote on Oct 3, 2008 7:47 PM:

" so is that why my gas price has dropped almost a dollar a gallon in the past few months and the barrel price has dropped below the $100 mark? "

kevin wrote on Oct 4, 2008 9:04 AM:

" And the Dems folded and allowed their moritorium on offshore oil drilling to expire. Coincidence? I think not.... "

Raven wrote on Oct 4, 2008 5:12 PM:

" well since the price dropped before their vote....yeah "

NVGal wrote on Oct 6, 2008 7:42 PM:

" If this were remotely true Greenspan would have disappeared and we would be at war with Iran right now. We don’t peg our currency to anything, and those countries that still do, which include Saudi Arabia and the UAE pegging to the USD, are under pressure to de-peg. Under pressure by both Iran and Greenspan. Maybe it was the military with orders from Bush that staged the credit crisis in Europe in order to strengthen the USD against the Euro…? It wasn’t Wall Street greed after all…! "

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