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Market crash not likely
Monday, September 29, 2008
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In my 40-plus years in the financial services industry, I can’t recall a time when there was more turmoil and consternation with economic matters. There is even talk of a 1929-type crash and the possibility of 1930s-type depression.

Today, investors and citizens have more information than at any time in recorded history. The media, including television, radio, the Internet, newspapers and others, are all around. Much of the information is inaccurate. It is speculation. Even so, it is bothersome and creates uncertainty, which leads to a lack of confidence by investors and consumers.
I am inundated with perhaps even more information than the average person, since I am plugged in to many resources. One of my sources is from James Swanson CFA, chief investment strategist for the MFS Mutual Funds in Boston.

I generally agree with Swanson’s assessments. He is conservative and realistic. He and I agree that the current credit crisis will not lead to a 1929-like crash. Here is the essence of the reasons.
Today, we have the FDIC. This program was created post-1929. It was set up in 1933 to guarantee the safety of checking and savings deposits. With this insurance in place, the average depositor knows that his or her money is safe. Of course, this insurance has limits, but the run on the banks, with its accompanying panic, that occurred in 1930 should never happen again.

Next, the Federal Reserve, currently being headed by Bernanke, has studied and learned from the events of 1929. Part of the job of the Federal Reserve is to create a monetary policy that stabilizes the flow of money in the U. S.
You may ask: Have they been doing anything? Have they ever! The Fed has been cutting rates over the last year and has implemented several creative and unique liquidity plans to help shore up the economy and the financial system. You may disagree with their actions, but they have been decisive and proactive. This is just the opposite of what happened in the 30s.

The U. S. economy is different today than in 1930. Back then we were a manufacturing- and agriculture-based economy. Today the economy is service oriented. The governments, federal, state and local, make up about 20 percent of the workforce.

A great deal of the remainder falls into the categories of health care and education. These industries are not cyclical. They are expanding. They tend to be more stable. This is a huge difference from the 30s.

Also, we are much less of an agricultural economy. How many people do you know that talk about growing up on a family farm? In 1929, about one in five Americans was employed in agriculture.

Today that number is about two out of 100. Back then irrigation was unsophisticated and many grain producing states were in the midst of long-running drought. Remember the dust bowl impact? That drought led to massive unemployment, which is not the fact today.

During the 1920s and 1930s, our trade policies were extremely restrictive and protectionist. These policies led to limited trading with foreign countries. Today trade is flowing freely compared to the ’30s. Granted, our trade policies are not perfect, but at least we have huge markets for our goods and services around the world.

Of course, you always need to be cautious when anyone says, “It’s different this time.” Some basic financial principles are just that — principles. If I assume that housing prices will always go up, I am violating a principle.

No investment always goes up. However, from a broader perspective, there are many factors that will insulate us from a deep and prolonged depression.

Notable quote: “Looking to the future I see in the further acceleration of science continuous jobs for our workers. Science will cure unemployment.” — Charles M. Schwab (Founder of Bethlehem Steel) Oct. 16, 1930

Tom Mills is a registered investment adviser and certified financial planner. If you have questions or topics, contact him at 1030 Seminary St. Suite D, Napa CA 94559, 254-0155, fax 254-0158 or e-mail suntrm@aol.com
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