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Let the good times pour
Wine industry sees a rising tide
Friday, May 23, 2008
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These are pretty good times — overall — to be in the wine business.

The wine industry will continue to see tight supplies — especially after the April frost that may cut production anywhere from 5-15 percent — depending on location. The chilly slam came as the industry realizes there is less acreage suitable for planting grapes in California.
About 200 people ranging from bakers to growers from throughout the state gathered earlier this week for the 13th annual Vineyard Economics Seminar at the Marriott Hotel in north Napa.

 “The purpose of this seminar ... is to get everyone to have a conversation ... the answers are somewhere in the room,” said seminar speaker David Freed.Prior to the start of the forum, there was a moment of silence for wine industry icon, Robert Mondavi, who recently passed away on May 16.
In contrast to the days when Mondavi opened his famed winery on Highway 29, the industry now is getting some gray hair.

Napa Valley’s wine industry is “fairly mature ... there is not lot of space (for new plantings). Sonoma has some areas that can still be developed,” said Freed, chairman of the UCC Vineyards Group, in Napa, who kicked off the day of speaker presentations. Land is also becoming scarcer along the Central Coast.
Freed said the industry was anticipating tightened supplies, but things will likely be tighter after the impact of the frost is realized. “That really creates an impact,” he added.

The tightened supplies come as the industry has finally worked its way through a glut of plantings statewide that peaked in 2004.

“There are no overproduction issues right now,” said Mike Sullivan, senior vice president of Wells Fargo Bank. He doesn’t see a rush of investors looking to invest in new vineyards.

Growers aren’t doing much replanting of vineyards nearing the 20-year life expectancy for maximum yields.

Issues impacting new plantings include the high costs for vines, steel, plastic, labor and water.

“The cost to put in a new vineyard is very expensive. The land costs are big.” And location drives vineyard values, according to Tony Correia, president of Correia-Xavier Inc.

Potential investors are also seeing tighter credit available from banks.

Despite the apparent recession, consumers, especially higher income shoppers, are not trading down to a less expensive bottle of wine.

Research shows people may be drinking more wine at home — possibly having trimmed their restaurant entertaining budget.

Previously consumers, in a slumping economy would opt for less expensive wines ... and we are not seeing that, according to John Gillespie, founder of Wine Options.

Officials believe this is in part because wine is becoming more a part of the American culture.

It appears consumer’s demand for wine will continue to rise — especially with higher-end consumers. This happens as the economy appears driving toward a recession.

And retailers recognize the value of giving more shelf space to the higher-end wines, pointed out Brian Lechner, client director for the Nielsen Group.

Some other findings reveal that:

• The top four in retail sales figures are chardonnay, merlot, cabernet sauvignon — followed by white zinfandel.

• However, the largest increases in sales volume break down are led by cabernet sauvignon, pinot grigio, pinot noir followed by chardonnay.

• Highest growth will be with high-end wines — those priced between $12 a bottle or more.

• And, as supply tightens, the value of grapes is expected to climb.

Other topics at the day-long seminar included water, legislative issues and grape contract strategies and consumer demand for wine, to name a few.

At the same time, there are constraints on the industry ranging from water to global competition.
3 comment(s)

petebo wrote on May 23, 2008 3:05 AM:

" It's refreshing to see that people still enjoy getting drunk while enjoying the "fruits" of our labor. Thank goodness for alcohol or this valley would REALLY be in a world of hurt! Hail to the grape...cheers! "

toratora wrote on May 23, 2008 11:29 AM:

" Alcohol and cigarettes sales always go way up when the economy stinks that is just the way it goes. "

vocal-de-local wrote on May 23, 2008 7:52 PM:

" toratora, true. But typically people buy cheaper alcoholic beverages during hard times. I can see where higher income buyers will continue buying wines well over $20 a bottle, but those facing economic uncertainty will opt for cheaper table wines under $10, or they will turn to harder alcohol instead. I do believe that the upper middle income class will shrink and those are the ones the Napa wine market will have the greatest difficulty losing. The highest end class will continue buying pricey wines no matter what. But overall, they are a fairly small market I think. They may indeed keep the expensive boutique wineries in business.

As we head toward greater economic instability, those wineries who market cheaper wines in such a way as to appeal to the economically torn middle class will do quite well. That's because the middle class still has a desire to hold onto the illusion of the "good life".

Nevertheless, people will continue drinking in spite of the economic reality, even more so in some cases, because quite a few people use alcohol to mask their problems. "

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