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Reverend Wright ... the aftermath
Monday, March 31, 2008
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My wife is full on board with John McCain at this point; in fact I have been forced to wear a McCain t- shirt and cap around the house just to get along this week. Myself, I still reserve my judgment and may go with either Barack Obama or McCain. Obama did take a beating the last two weeks, but he appears to have taken a lickin' and kept on tickin'.

The fall out from the Wright debacle is starting to settle, and it is telling us some interesting things about the campaign and where it may go from here.
It appears that only slight damage was done to Obama, including his favorability ratings. The latest Gallop poll from 3/24 to 3/26 shows Obama up four points over Hillary Clinton in that time. He dipped against McCain, but that appears to be recovering as well.

There are two other poll numbers that actually are more intriguing. One is the steep drop in Clinton's favorability ratings over the last week. Commentators on MSNBC last night were attributing it to her comments about Rev. Wright, mainly her statement that she would have left the church if it were she. My sentiments exactly, and I doubt if that is what hurt her, although it probably hurt Obama.
My view is that what hurt her was her blatant, videotaped proof of lying about her trip to Tuzla, trying to pump up non-existent foreign policy credentials. It is rather incredible that she thinks she can get away with such blatant lying. It shows how desperate she is to win, but what else is new?

Hillary's favorability ratings dropped to their lowest level since 2001 to 37 percent, down seven big points in a week. But another interesting poll has been done by Rasmussen showing that there is a big increase in the number of potential cross over Democratic voters whose favored nominee does not get the Democratic nomination.
In other words, Rasmussen found that 28 percent of Hillary supporters would vote for McCain if Obama were to become the Democratic nominee, and 19 percent of Obama supporters would vote for McCain if Hillary were to become the nominee.

Those are huge numbers of cross over voters, and it reflects the level of hostility developing between the two sides of the Democratic party. It also reflects Hillary's scorched earth approach to the primary and her unrelenting negative campaigning toward Obama. McCain and the Republicans are delighted by this turn of events, and even though it is early and there will be some revamping of those numbers as we go, it is clear that Hillary's campaign tactics are hurting the Democratic parties chances in November.

One also has to believe that hurting Obama as much as she can is a deliberate strategy. Right now her chances of winning the nomination are very low, simply based on delegate numbers along with a gradually dwindling super delegate count. In the last month she has lost 60 super delegates to Obama, and things are not turning around for her, they are getting worse. Her own advisors said that her chances of getting the nomination now are about 10 percent, which means they are actually about 5 percent, probably even less. She is not going to get the nomination and she has to know that.

What that means? By dumping on Obama, she is throwing a Hail Mary, hoping to turn around the super delegates by showing that he cannot win the general election against McCain, mainly because she has managed to tarnish him so badly. If Obama loses, then viola, in 2012 after McCain serves one term, its Hillary all over again. One has to wonder if that is her main agenda at this point.

Am I cynical? There is no too low you can go in estimating Hillary's opportunism and willingness to play dirty.

This really is a watershed campaign, and despite all the talk about gender vs. race, the Obama vs. Hillary campaign is really about the dirty politics of the past vs. the hopeful politics of the future. McCain is a decent person too, and I look forward to a campaign that is actually about issues, and not about trash talk.

That really will be something new.
26 comment(s)

jasper wrote on Mar 27, 2008 6:34 PM:

" Once again, Mr. Haley has expressed the views of people who follow the political train. There is no way that Clinton can win a general election. And her blatant lie about being under sniper fire is just another piece of baggage she would bring to the contest. I wish I knew more about Obama, but one thing stands high on my priority list. If he continues to persuade young people to get involved, it will be a wonderful contribution to the American political scene. That is a "biggee" for me. "

glenroy wrote on Mar 27, 2008 9:34 PM:

" Your wife is obviously a very intelligent lady...we both must have married up...as they say, always better to have luck, than merely being good. Rasmussen, by a wide margin, has proven to take consistently more accurate public opinion tracking polls, perhaps because they follow a principled process of seeking opinions instead of manipulating for result. They were way out front of the Gore collapse back in 04, as they were with the eventual Obamarama grand stall, well before the Liberation Theologist fiasco a week prior to the LA Times poll which, surprisingly preceded the ‘rantin reverend’ as well...not too many people pay attention to his website, no doubt too many can’t stand what they can’t understand. I’d never thought I’d say this, but I believe Billiary would actually make a less worse President than Obama for the simple reason that Obama’s foreign policy advisers are thankfully former Clinton Appointees...they had nowhere to go but up from this pack of malcontents. Anyway, once again great comments and make sure you wear your husbandly attire as promised. Go McC.....
"

Kevin wrote on Mar 27, 2008 9:39 PM:

" Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" has been quite the success in keeping Hillary in the race and keeping the Democrats fighting. Of course Hillary can win the nomination. Her campaign has already said they are going to do a "Tanya Harding" on Obama. McCain may actually win this thing the way it's shaping up! "

sickothis wrote on Mar 28, 2008 10:12 AM:

" McCain has no chance once the Dem nomination is locked. Hillary will throw her support to Obama, Obama will crush McCain like a bug. McCain is 72 years ancient, he is andwas WAAAY wrong on Iraq, wants to nuke Iran. There's nothing there once this thing gets cookin for real. "

Sickothis wrote on Mar 28, 2008 11:45 AM:

" Hehe. Rush Limpbaugh - the drug addled felon - has had no impact other than to add puffery to the ditto-heads that can't or won't think for themselves. Throw Ann Coulter and that lovely wackjob Michelle Malkin while you're at it. "

russ wrote on Mar 28, 2008 7:38 PM:

" Fact Checker russ to the rescue! Rush Limbaugh is not a felon. Plus, Obama has no chance to win a national election, none, will not happen, never. All of the older white folks in the Heartland of America go for McCain. Rev. Wright swiftboated Obama! "

glenroy wrote on Mar 28, 2008 10:37 PM:

" Obama has as much a chance of winning the election as the next ‘Liberation Theologist’ which would result in the same economic ruin as the last ‘Liberation Theologist’ and current world renowned looney tune Jimmy the peanut farmer turned President Carter...they have the same lack of qualifications, the same mindless economic policies and the exact same foreign policy advisors! "

JimClark wrote on Mar 29, 2008 6:44 AM:

" Sicko: You seem to typify the delusional mentality that anyone other than your opinion is somehow unworthy of an opinion. Limbaugh is a clear and satisfactory danger to the democrat.

That being said, I am not a republican; as if any really exist. Conservatism has been refuted, denied, insulted and demeaned for all too long. You need only look at the current economic and taxation conditions to know that democrats and republicans are sleeping in the same bed. I find your frivolous verbal assaults to be typical of one who has no real argument to present. Next time you need a prescription filled, just say no.
If there is to be a debate, let us discuss the issues and leave the innuendo and name calling to lesser people; assuming you are not one of them. "

sickothis wrote on Mar 29, 2008 12:21 PM:

" Limbaugh is a "clear and satisfactory danger?" Maybe to himself. Oh and yes, limbaugh is a felon. Shopping oxy across doctors, getting his housekeeper to buy his drugs, and accepting a plea bargain to keep his fat tush out of prison. "

Brittanicus wrote on Mar 29, 2008 6:44 PM:

" What worries me is none of the presidential candidates want to talk about the scourge of illegal immigration. They need to be asked where they stand, whoever comes to power? What do they have in store for us in 2009?


STOP THE TRAVESTY OF OUR IMMIGRATION LAWS! SAVE YOUR JOBS, LANGUAGE, FLAG & CONSTITUTION FROM ALL THOSE ANTI-SOVEREIGN, PRO-ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT ADVOCATES WHO WOULD UNDERMINE THE RIGHTS OF THE PEOPLE!

When the new personage steps into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, then we will be seeing the 12 to 20 million getting a path to citizenship. Once a new amnesty is signed into law, then nobody will be able to stop the next tsunami of destitute, uneducated illegal humanity pouring across our borders. A new amnesty will be seen as an open door for yet another future welcome to the world.

Demand the FEDERA SAVE ACT! "

russ wrote on Mar 29, 2008 9:55 PM:

" Limbaugh is at the peak of his ratings and popularity He was never charged with a crime. Rush has contributed to the obvious chaos in the Democrat party's unsuccessful attempt to nominate a candidate. Go Rush! "

napablogger wrote on Mar 30, 2008 12:07 AM:

" jasper, I agree with you. It appears everyone has already formed a strong opinion about who will win, my view is that it is way too early to know. Obama has a few land mines lurking out there but I don't see much there there. Another minister, less close to him, Meeks? He has weathered the first one, and I don't think it is going to hurt him with people who already like him. Rezko? worst case scenario Rezko helped him get a sweet deal on a house. Can you say Whitewater? I think politicians can usually worm their way out of these charges of getting special money from rich people. Harken? Same thing. The other land mine is the machine politics in Illinois, and the special favors he has really gotten all along from various benefactors. But that is how successful people get there in politics, with Bush it was the same. People see something in someone and think they will go to the top so they help them. I don't think that will hurt Obama either.

Kevin, I think Limbaugh and Ann Coulter's encouraging people to vote for Hillary is a low integrity thing to do. I have gotten so I can't stand either one of them. Limbaugh always struck me as the whiner of small things, blown up as big as he could get them, but this gambit is really just dirty politics. "

JimClark wrote on Mar 30, 2008 6:55 AM:

" Brittanicus: Very good point. It seems the only people who are concerned about illegal immigration are The People. Legislators are afraid to correct the matter. "

JimClark wrote on Mar 30, 2008 7:08 AM:

" Napablogger: So, it is OK for the democrat to use less than ethical means to promote their snake oil yet, when your faces are rubbed in it, you develop a "problem"? I'm not a big fan of Limbaugh but, he is bringing a certain reality to the arena. This double standard of the liberal can do or say anything and the conservative has to be an honorable person is fine with me. However, some of the Liberal Intellectual Establishment (LIE) need to have their faces rubbed in their own bovine feces.

There's those 1s and ls AGAIN!!! "

Lengle wrote on Mar 30, 2008 10:10 AM:

" Limbaugh is a complete joke. He has been encouraging people to take part in voter fraud and yet people on here support his idea. What does that say about your character? "

russ wrote on Mar 30, 2008 1:13 PM:

" lengle, you are right, Limbaugh is pretty funny, a great sense of humor in the way he ridicules liberals to 20 million folks daily. Now we have you and sicko accusing Rush of felonies. Hmmm! No one in the state or federal justice system has thought so. Just more liberal blather it seems. :)- "

Lengle wrote on Mar 30, 2008 7:39 PM:

" Russ

I actually didn't accuse him of a felony. It would be far to hard to prove his intent to prosecute him. However, in Ohio what he encouraged people to do was to take part in voter fraud. Look it up. It's not really arguable.

Also, since when does ratings have anything to do with someones wisdom or moral character. He may be the funniest guy on earth to you and entertain you but to defend him is another thing. "

napablogger wrote on Mar 30, 2008 10:49 PM:

" Jim, first to the most important issue. Winemd has made the scientific discovery of a lifetime, and I have repeated his discovery and verified it. If it is a 1 (one), then the part at the top goes 90 degrees across. If it is an l then it angles down slightly.

Ok, now I do not condone either parties unethical behavior. What I was saying is that everyone has some things that may be considered by some unethical, and all the things I am seeing Obama criticized are not sufficient to get much negative traction with the voters, that's all. I am not saying they were not a problem ethically, at least necessarily. I may not agree that some of these things were unethical, like the Speaker of the Illinois house helping him by letting him sponsor a lot of legislation. "

JimClark wrote on Mar 31, 2008 11:04 AM:

" napablogger: What was your point.

Incidently, Ohio concluded Mr. Limbaugh's were Constitutional and unworthy of prosecution. One wonders where the charges came from at the outset.

I continue to ask the Ls & 1s be eliminated. "

russ wrote on Mar 31, 2008 5:48 PM:

" Lengel, you are dancing. So you mean that Limbaugh was an accessory to voter fraud? Is that not a felony too? Is it not legal and moral for voters to vote in their own best interest, even if it means voting in the opponents primary? Mr. Limbaugh did not create the chaos in the Democrat party, he is just adding fuel. "

Lengle wrote on Apr 1, 2008 9:07 AM:

" No Russ it is not legal in the state of Ohio. In Ohio anyone wishing to change party to the Democratic party must sign a legal document pledging allegiance to the party and their ideals in good faith under penalty of election falsification. That is a fifth-degree felony in the state. Why is this so hard for some people to get? "

russ wrote on Apr 1, 2008 7:47 PM:

" Lengle, so you are saying now that Limbaugh IS guilty of a felony, just as sicko was. Then why did the Democrat Ohio Attorney General not charge Rush? Is there not a presumption of innocence? "

Madison Jay Hamilton wrote on Apr 1, 2008 11:04 PM:

" I anticipate reading Mr. Haley's comments about John McCain's seeking/getting the endorsements of John C. Hagee and Rod Parsley (televangelists with some extraordinarily weird political, economic and social views). "

JimClark wrote on Apr 2, 2008 3:00 AM:

" Lengle: In the United States it is unconstitutional for the state or feds to restrict the voting rights of any citizen. There is no indication of conspiracy involved here; just one person making a suggestion. "

Lengle wrote on Apr 2, 2008 7:36 AM:

" Russ,

I have to assume you're just pulling my chain at this point because I don't know how I or the Ohio law could be any clearer.

and Jim, don't get me wrong I don't think "operation chaos" had any real impact on any primaries. I'm just speaking to the ethics and disrespect to the process. Rush was a miserable being before this happened, I'm more surprised at the people who defend his actions. "

russ wrote on Apr 2, 2008 6:45 PM:

" The Democrat party's lack of respect for the electoral process is stunning. The party of "count every ballot" has disenfranchised two entire states, Florida and Michigan, and created super delegates which were established to trump the power of the vote of the people. "

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