A time to buy?
Napa median price is down, Realtors confident of rebound
By JENNIFER HUFFMAN, Register Business Writer
Local Realtors see some signs of a revived housing market as spring approaches, even as the numbers have been working against them in recent months.
The number of Napa County homes sold in February 2008 dipped substantially compared to February of last year, while the number of homes on the Napa County market has grown.
According to Trendgraphix Inc., 38 Napa county homes were sold in February 2008, compared to 72 in February 2007.
“The market suffered a hit in August when the sub-prime debacle started,” said Mike Silvas with Morgan Lane Real Estate. “Everything just stopped.”
“We’ve been recovering from that ever since,” said Silvas. “Things are starting to pick up now and were seeing our traditional spring comeback.”
The median price for a Napa County home was $573,000 in February, compared to $670,000 a year earlier. The median for April 2004 was $540,000, meaning home values remain higher than they were before the market reached a dizzying peak.
Realtors say buyers, especially first-time buyers, are increasingly active as prices come within range.
To Silvas, a Napa County median lower than last year’s reflects a market beginning to move. “We are seeing properties start in the $300,000s and $400,000s, prices that you did not see in 2005 and 2006,” he said.
“There’s more first-time home buyers in the market. That’s what generally brings the median down. It doesn’t relate necessarily” to slipping property values, he said.
“Business is certainly being done,” stated Gerrett Snedaker with Frank Howard Allen. “There is activity at the lower end of the market, with some foreclosure sales occurring at prices well below levels of two years ago.”
‘Circling but not landing’
Realtors said asking prices are now more realistic for the pool of qualified buyers, and buyers are sensing that values are out there.
“Buyers (are) waiting for ‘the bottom,’ circling but not landing,” wrote Karen Cherniss, with Windermere Real Estate, in an e-mail.
“A lot (are) waiting for the new conforming limit to be raised,” she wrote, referring to the recent decision by the Federal Reserve Bank to raise conforming loan limits, lifting the cap in Napa County from $417,000 to $729,750. The new cap will be in place at least until the end of the year, though some observers believe it could be extended further.
The end of tax season could also mark a change in the market. “Hopefully after April 15 we’ll see a new spurt of purchasers that will last through the summer,” Cherniss said.
Said Silvas, “There are buyers out there, they are just a lot more cautious than they used to be. They are slower to make offers, and when they do they are negotiating harder. But properties are selling.”
The number of homes for sale in Napa County rose to 720, compared to 605 a year ago.
Over the last six months in American Canyon, the median price has dropped from $600,000 to $400,000. But so has inventory, and that will help what has been a quiet market. Only three homes were sold in February in the south county city, according to TrendGraphix.
“I look at supply and demand,” said Jim Wisinger with Coldwell Banker in American Canyon. “As the (economic) stimulus package takes effect over the next coming months, we will see the effect that it has on the real estate market. I’m optimistic there is pent-up demand for buyers who are waiting to see what will happen with the financial markets.”
Confidence is key, said Randy Gularte of Heritage Sotheby’s International Realty, who said home buyers are still feeling shaky after two years of turmoil in the market.
Of the 38 Napa County homes sold in February, Gularte estimates 25 percent of those were in distress, either so-called short sales or pre-foreclosures. Those kinds of deals can take much longer to close, he noted.
Gularte believes a shift in the attitude of both consumers and Realtors is required in this market.
These days consumers think of a home in terms of investment and appreciation, without considering the emotional value and benefit of owning a home itself, Gularte said.
“It’s got to be a different process,” he said. “We as Realtors have to educate our clients. Buy because you like a home,” said Gularte, not because you think it will quickly gain value.
Gularte advised his clients to get back to the basics of owning a home: “‘I can own this and live in and enjoy it. I can plant a garden.’ That’s what we need to pass on to our clients again.”
Michael Strong, who works at Realty World Napa Valley and is currently vice president of the North Bay Association of Realtors, said he’s optimistic. Napa County will see a recovery better than other areas, said Strong.
“Napa is a unique little microcosm — everyone wants to have something in the Napa Valley because of its uniqueness,” said Strong.
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vocal-de-local wrote on Mar 23, 2008 1:50 AM:
Beware though. The market may not hit rock bottom for quite awhile. Unless you plan to hold onto a newly purchased home for a lengthy period of time, you will risk financial loss. And for those who think that home ownership is all fun and joy; it's a huge responsibility which can seriously tie you down, leaving less flexibility for changes in life such as career move. If there is any instability in your job due to the economy, home ownership is not a good idea at this time. "
mikeb wrote on Mar 23, 2008 1:26 PM:
petebo wrote on Mar 23, 2008 7:02 PM:
nuttinpersonal wrote on Mar 24, 2008 6:36 AM:
Can these mathematically challenged sods compute the payment required to afford a $400K home under today's lending requirements? As a *starter* home which means the equity comes from hard earned cash? Do these starter home buyers have the assets and income to make the payment over 30 years without BS lending? Does Napa have a huge pot of high-paying jobs to support this? You know, since the median household income is about a stunning $50K? Uh-huh.
Who is going to loan these first time home buyers the money for a $400K mortgage in a declining market and expect to get paid back? Without the irrational lending, housing prices are toast in bubble areas. Would you as a lender loan $400K to first time home buyers in Napa?
The real estate agents have overall destroyed their reputation to a generation of housing buyers. "
tory wrote on Mar 24, 2008 8:16 AM:
vocal-de-local wrote on Mar 24, 2008 2:52 PM:
Most of those people who fell for the sales pitch are now so busy making ends meet, their family, including children, are suffering. These families do not have time to garden or relax in a backyard. They are often forced to take a second job. Their kids are probably latchkey since both parents are locked and owned by the mortgage key. Often few resources are left to improve the property or take care of maintenance issues.The situation must be stressful.
I personally believe we've created a fairytale image of home ownership to benefit all of those involved with the transaction. Look where it has taken us? In the old days, a clerk at the grocery store could buy a house with one income. Today? It requires either old money passed down to the next generation or two above average incomes to "really" make it work.
If you're thinking of buying a home, ask your children which they would prefer: a home which the parents are slaves to for at least the next 15 years (oops there goes the childhood), or renting a home which would probably be smaller and have less space for running around, but allows mobility should something happen to the income producers? Either way, you are making payments to a lender or a landlord. Go ahead, buy a house to plant a garden, but know the risks. "
speakdatruth wrote on Mar 24, 2008 10:45 PM: