NVR Logo
Seeing the silver lining in Napa real estate
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Save and Share Share
Napa County Realtors have spotted some good news out there in the slumbering residential real estate market. While the market is still slow-moving, vineyard properties and higher-end homes are attracting attention.

Overall, the number of homes listed for sale in Napa County hovered at a near-record high in August, while the number sold dipped 20 percent compared to a year ago.
According to Trendgraphix data, in August 879 homes were listed for sale in Napa County, compared to 806 a year ago. Sixty-seven homes sold last month, compared to 83 a year ago.

American Canyon real estate sales remained stagnant, with a record 167 homes listed but only four homes sold in August, the same number as July. At this rate it'd take 41 months to sell current inventory.
But things may be looking up in the south county city.

"We're starting to see some investor activity," said David Barker of ReMax in American Canyon.
"I had an investor call me yesterday who called from out of the area. He's looking for rental properties. The ones with the money are starting to surface and looking for deals."

"American Canyon (prices) are fantastic compared to the rest of the Bay Area," noted Barker. "These homes do represent excellent value."

Median prices in Napa County remained steady from this time last year, at $675,000. Real estate professionals say they believe that figure is being buoyed by the sale of higher-priced homes Upvalley.

"The medians are holding because the units that are selling are the upper end properties," said Mike Silvas of Morgan Lane Real Estate.

Silvas said the slow conditions are affecting more modest properties. "Our first-time market is now roughly $400,000 to $750,000, and that's what's been impacted," he said.

"When looking at individual neighborhoods (where homes are priced) at $750,000 and under, there was no appreciation from 2004 to 2006. We're back to 2004 prices in the lower end of the market. I don't think we've seen a decline in prices. It's just flattened out," said Silvas. "We're telling buyers this is the kind of market smart people buy in. This is a good time to buy in those lower price ranges.

"We're telling our sellers if they don't have to sell, they should not be in the market," he said. "This certainly is not a time to test the market."

Gerrett Snedaker with Frank Howard Allen Realtors said each seller deals with his or her listing differently.

"Some sellers are frustrated with the lack of showings and offers. Some are voluntarily reducing their prices to make their homes more attractive," he wrote.

On the other hand, "Many buyers are being more demanding -- asking for repairs and credits. In the seller's market, the buyers were less likely to ask the seller for credits."

Snedaker also analyzed changes in the higher-end market.

"In 2005, between 15 and 25 percent of homes were purchased as either investment properties or second homes. This market has all but dried up, though we are still having healthy activity in second home sales -- particularly in the higher end. That's why sales are down in most of our markets. I believe that the underlying demand for wine country properties remains strong."

According to Mike Bolen of Intero Realty, "The most interesting thing is the difference between the average asking price and average sale price."

For August, the average high-end asking price was $1,034,000. The average sold price was $884,000, a difference of $150,000. One year ago, the difference was $334,000.

"Month after month it is narrowing," said Bolen. "That tells me sellers are becoming more realistic in their price expectations."

"As the number narrows, sales will pick up," predicted Bolen. "I see the narrowing of the number to mean that we will be in a better market sooner rather than later."

Bolen is also seeing the lower end condo market opening up, with prices dipping below $300,000. "It means there's better opportunity out there for better qualified buyers."

Upvalley, Heidi Rickerd-Rizzo of Pacific Union GMAC reports "We have found that our sellers, while very anxious about days on market and lack of early offers, seem much more willing to try to come together with the buyers who are coming to the table. When there are real sellers and real buyers, there is a sale to be made."

"We are also finding that larger properties with wine development potential are very 'hot' right now. My associates are representing sellers more willing to work through difficult issues to keep the sale moving forward," she wrote.
4 comment(s)

Skip M. wrote on Sep 25, 2007 12:06 PM:

" I'm waiting for the median price to come down around $400K. "

napawineo wrote on Sep 25, 2007 3:04 PM:

" glad to see it is just "silver Lining" going into the over rated realtors pockets rather the the "gold lining" of the years past.... "

petebo wrote on Sep 25, 2007 6:40 PM:

" Skip, do you understand what the median average is??? A much more accurate indexed figure to utilize for effective quantitative analysis you should consider the average "price" coming down. That figure is more representative of the real market and this has a long way to go on the downside. The federal reserve caused this and actually wanted this to happen. How can a banker complain when more people than ever are in debt up to their ears which has them shackled and oftentimes forced to take on another job. This slavery was planned and when the bankers are allowed to print money out of thin air, what exactly do you expect would happen? The fed is like a meth head only the vice is printing more and more money...which simply creates more aqnd more debt. Is the picture any clearer now? Lowering the fed funds rate simply exasperated the inflationary pressures by weakening the dollar which is why it had an opposite effect on mortgage interest rates which have since moved HIGHER! The fed is in a huge bind and there is no way out. A crash is imminent so be prepared and above all, educate yourselves with facts and don't trust commissioned real estate agents to give you truthful, accurate information. These agents are more often the LEAST informed...be your own advisor because no one looks out for your assets and well being better than you can. Educate yourselves and you can save lots of money... "

Skip M. wrote on Sep 26, 2007 11:57 AM:

" I have a BA in Accounting with a minor in economics. I understand how this works. But thanks for advice just the same. I bought my home at just under 170. The property increased in estimated value quite a bit since then, to the point that even with the downturn I have just under 100% equity. I do not use my home as a piggybank. It is my leverage for the next step. Just to let you know, the median is not an average. It is the point at which half are higher and half are lower. A lower interest rate is good for the economy in that it encourages home ownership. The fact that some people can't resist the urge to tap into equity is another problem all together. In economic terms, this is called cranial rectal inversion. People don't seem to get that equity is a phantom number until the property is sold. Then, and only then, are any gains realized. Until that time equity is just an estimate, not a real number. "

Comment Guidelines
The goal of the story comments section at NapaValleyRegister.com is to have an open, thought-provoking, civil community forum for all issues.
What gets your comment posted?
• Staying on topic
• Keeping your comment to 300 words or less
• Avoiding name-calling
• Addressing your comments to the message rather than the messenger
What gets your comment deleted?
• Personal attacks
• Derogatory remarks
• Name-calling of any sort
• Going off-topic
• Hate speech
• Racially-insensitive comments
• Implying guilt of a subject in a crime story before there is a court verdict
• Posting e-mail addresses
• Posting comments of a commercial nature
• POSTING WITH ALL CAPITAL LETTERS
• Linking multiple comments together with "to be continued..." to get around the 300 word limit.
The fine print
- Comments are either approved or denied. We do not edit comments.
- You are welcome to modify and resubmit a denied comment.
- Comments may take several hours to be posted.
- Comments posted are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NapaValleyRegister.com, its employees or its parent company.
- Do you have information on a story? Please go to our virtual newsroom to send us a news tip.
- If you feel a posted comment has violated our guidelines, please contact online@napanews.com or add a comment indicating you have an issue and our moderators will review the comment in question.
Search:
Web Search Powered
By Yahoo! Search
Napa Valley Register on Facebook
Copyright © 2009 Napa Valley Publishing, a member of Lee Enterprises, Inc.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy