County to be Hispanic majority by 2030
By DAVID RYAN
Register Staff Writer
3 p.m.Napa will become mostly Hispanic by 2030 — sooner than six other Bay Area counties — as whites decline in numbers and Hispanics multiply. In fact, by 2040 every Bay Area county except San Francisco will be populated mostly by Hispanics, according to recently released numbers from the California Department of Finance
The state Department of Finance used things like racial fertility rates, mortality rates and statistical models to come up with population projections of how the state will change through 2050 — county by county.
Starting from a population of 125,146 in 2000, the state estimates Napa County will more than double to 251,630 people by 2050.
But the real news is what will happen racially by 2030. That year, the state estimates 91,896 Hispanics will eclipse 77,037 Caucasians to become the majority race in Napa County. The Hispanic lead will increase each year thereafter. By 2050, they will become more than 60 percent of the county, 152,455 compared to 68,358 white residents.
At the same time, whites will decline in numbers, going from 80,342 in 2020 to 68,358 in 2050.
Mary Heim, a demographic researcher for the state, said it’s all due to the birth rate, not white flight.
“Right now, today, whites are experiencing natural decrease,” she said. “In other words the number of deaths are outpacing the number of births.”
State-measured fertility and mortality rates show that Hispanics are having more children than whites and they are living longer than whites. While whites are having an average of 1.83 children per couple — not enough to keep the population steady — Hispanics are having 2.33 children per couple.
Then there’s the other end of life. While the state estimate white males can expect to live to 76.8 years old, their Hispanic counterparts are estimated to live to 79.3 years of age. The difference was even more pronounced for women. Hispanic women are on average estimated to live to 84.2 years of age while white women are estimated to die after 81.1 years on average.
Marisa Loza, an immigration consultant working in Napa, said she sees new Hispanics coming to Napa all the time, and not just at her business.
“Even when you go to church you see new people,” she said. “We have people moving from Southern California and from other states, but especially from the Los Angeles area.”
Loza remembers when she came to Napa 16 years ago she could count maybe 30 Hispanic students with her at Vintage High School. District enrollment figures from the 2005-06 school year show Hispanic students made up 24.1 percent of 2,423 students.
The owners of the Napa Food Center on Kilburn Avenue in west Napa first noticed changes in their customers about a decade ago. More and more, local Hispanics were cruising the aisles looking for the bargains that Napa Food Center bases its livelihood on.
At first, the owners decided it was time to stock an entire aisle dedicated to Hispanic foods, then, a few years ago, they went for it.
“Five years ago we decided to go full-blown,” said co-owner Eric Obranovich, 24. Since then, the Anglo family-owned market on Kilburn Avenue has been stocked in every aisle with a combination of standard supermarket fare and ethnic foods from Mexico.
Shoppers cruise the aisles while cumbias — upbeat Spanish-language songs — play over the store’s sound system. Checkers deal with customers in either English or Spanish. The message: If you’re from south of the border, you’ll feel comfortable spending your money here.
“We see a double-digit increase in business every year,” Obranovich said. With the state numbers, that business stands to keep increasing.
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