The terms “New World” and “Old World” may take on a new meaning in the next 10 years.

That’s the opinion of Christophe Grenaille, one of the speakers at the MKF Research Executive Wine Summit at Vintage 1870 last week.

The summit brought together 200 wine industry leaders for a two-day program that covered topics like the structure of the U.S. wine industry over the next decade and the status of the French wine industry today.

When Grenaille, of Diageo Chateaux and Estate Wines, was asked as a member of the French panel what the French industry would look like in 10 years. He responded, “The concept of New World versus Old World will be gone. The wineries around the world that invest in technology and make the best wines will be the New World, while the ones that do not use technology will be the Old World.”

Not a geographical divide

He told the Register that the technology he referred to would involve “wood chips, managing vineyards better — anything that can improve wine” — and explained that Old World-New World didn’t refer to a geographical divide, but rather better wine versus lower-end wine.

Changes are being considered in regulations affecting the French wine industry, and all panelists agreed that they were necessary to keep French wines competitive. Among changes under discussion are revisions in the AOC (Appellation d’Origine Contrôlée) laws, France’s appellation system, and whether to allow the use of oak chips in production.

Panel moderator David Pearson, of Opus One, said that oak chips are currently allowed in experimental wines, but joked that experiments “can be very large.”

Statistics have been released during the past few years indicating overall wine consumption has declined in France over the past 25 years, and production has also declined. But, said Pearson, both consumption and production of quality wine has increased — it was the lower-end wine that pulled the overall market down.

Christian Delpeuch, of Ginestet, one of Bordeaux’s largest negociants, said that 15 years ago consumption was 115 liters per person; it is now 55 liters per person, and he expects it to drop as low as 35 in the next five years.

High on Spanish wines

In a summary of imported wines, Leonardo LoCascio, of Winebow, a New Jersey-based importer specializing in Italian wines, said that he has become a believer in Spanish and Portuguese wines and feels that no one yet knows their full potential. “It reminds me of the situation in Italy 15 years ago,” he said.

He also sees increased interest in wines from Greece and “tremendous things in Chile, with the emergence of boutique wineries and new areas emerging,” like the San Antonio region where “they are making world class pinot noir.” He said Argentina also shows good potential, and he’s sold on New Zealand’s sauvignon blanc — “they’re doing it right” — but is still skeptical of the pinot noir from there.

“Australia has proven to be a player in both whites and reds, and the only question is their staying power,” he said. “France will continue to lose market share in (the U.S.),” he added, citing red Burgundy and Bordeaux as experiencing turbulence here.

Action in Italy

LoCascio said, “The real action in Italy in the next 10 years will be in Umbria, just south of Tuscany, and Veneto.” Sicily and Sardinia, with good microclimates, are producing some very good but lesser-known varietals, and consumer interest in some of those is increasing, he said. “Pinot grigio is cutting into chardonnay (sales).”

He felt the DOCs (Denominazione di Origine Controllata, or controlled place name) — Italy’s appellation system — have become too large, citing Sardinia as an area 200 miles long and 80 miles wide. “Wine from all over the island is under the same DOC,” he said.

Barbara Insel, of MKF Research, presented preliminary results of a survey on direct wine sales and growth in the past year and said direct sales are “overwhelmingly driven by the tasting room, not e-commerce. E-commerce is a tiny piece of sales.”

She said most direct sales start in the tasting room, but few wineries know how to exploit tasting room visits. “Few have visitor numbers  — who buys the wine?” she asked. “What do you know about tasting room visitors?”

She said it was surprising how many wineries still do not have wine clubs, and many of those that do maintain poor data on retentions. “Wineries have poor information on sales to wine club members beyond the automatic shipments,” she said.

Brian Baker, of Jackson Family Wines, suggested that wineries send out a monthly e-mail to keep their databases current. “Twenty percent of all snail mail addresses expire each year, and 20 percent of e-mail addresses expire in a month,” he said.

Kathleen Hoertkorn, of New Vine Logistics, a Napa-based direct fulfillment firm, said that since direct shipping laws have been changed, “the growth for Florida, New York and Ohio is off the charts.” Shipments to consumers in New York jumped by 9,282 percent, Florida shipments rose by 2,887 percent, and those to Ohio increased 459 percent.

But those figures are still relatively small in the overall picture, she said. Florida accounts for just 6 percent of total shipments, and New York is 4.6 percent of the total. Shipments within California dominate direct sales (the state accounts for 48.4 percent of all direct shipped sales), but significant new markets are emerging, she said.

While sales of wine have increased overall, direct sales have risen three times faster (up 31 percent in the first quarter of 2007, compared to the same period last year), Hoertkorn said, and the majority of wines shipped direct are not available in typical supermarkets.

Prices for wines over $30 per bottle rose by 24.1 percent during the first quarter of 2007 compared to the first quarter of 2006, while wines selling for under $10 increased by 22.5 percent in the same period. “I’m surprised at how much wine is shipped under $10,” she said.