For politics watchers, the most compelling question regarding Tuesday's Napa City Council election boils down to this: Will Harry Martin survive this year's challenge?

Martin, the love-him, hate-him candidate, easily won his three previous council bids, but always in crowded fields where the anti-Harry vote was divided among many candidates.

In four other races in which Martin ran for mayor or county supervisor, when the field included just one or two opponents, Martin lost each time.

In this year's council race, three candidates are vying for two seats. For the first time, it is possible for Martin's opponents to concentrate their displeasure.

"It's a whole different horse race," said Councilman Jim Krider, who is not on the ballot. "I think there's more uncertainty this time than I've ever seen for Harry."

"If working people and lower-income people come out to vote, he will win," said Al Cardwell, a Martin supporter. "If they don't, he will lose."

"I think this is the one time in Harry's career when he's vulnerable," said former Mayor Ed Henderson, who is supporting Martin's opponents, Juliana Inman and Peter Mott.

Opposing views

Martin is a political phenomenon. Boosted by his own newspaper, the Napa Sentinel, and a public access TV show, he has handily won three council elections going back to 1994.

He was the top vote-getter in 1994 and again in 1999, when he received 51 percent of the vote. His last time out, 2003, he won but finished behind Councilman Kevin Block, who is not running for re-election.

When Martin ran for mayor in March 2005, he was trounced by Jill Techel, receiving just 33 percent of the vote.

Martin plays to slow-growth, anti-tourist, anti-yuppie sentiments that run counter to the political mainstream's enthusiasm for remaking old Napa to respond to a changing economy and development pressures.

"My core group is the working class, the seniors, the poor and some in the business community," said Martin, who enjoys taunting the "elite group" that he claims runs this town.

This election should be tougher than past ones, Martin said. Having convinced the council to move city elections from March to November, he will need to win the support of voters from outside his core group, he said.

Inman, a local architect and preservationist, may well be the top vote-getter on Tuesday, Martin said. She has name recognition and a "good demeanor," he said.

Martin has nothing good to say about Mott, a local business owner. "I see him being a rubber stamp for some of the clique on the council," he said.

Mott accuses Martin of playing resentment politics. The times require more than "someone who stirs things up," he said.

As a businessman with two young daughters, Mott says he has the financial savvy to put the city's budget in the black and promote programs that benefit families.

From her door-to-door electioneering, Inman said Martin is easily the most divisive personality in the race. "Harry Martin, he's the voice of the disenfranchised and the marginalized" and "Harry Martin, we've got to get him out" are the opposing opinions she hears, she said.

While Martin definitely has name recognition, Inman said the city's current financial problems could be a liability for him. "Elections are always something of a referendum on the incumbent," she said.

The contrarian

Napa Mayor Jill Techel said the council "needs voices of people who see things differently," but would be better off without Martin's.

"His approach has been very much, 'I'm good, you're bad. I'm right, you're wrong,'" she said.

"They see him as a gadfly, a muckraker," said Councilman Block, who is supporting Inman and Mott. "I don't agree with any of that."

Block questions the wisdom of any council member serving a fourth term. "He's been on the council 12 years. He's asking to be there 16 years. That's a long time. I think even people who like him will question if it's time for a change."

Lowell Downey, an Old Town resident and, like Martin, a member of the Green Party, predicts that Martin will do fine even if voter turnout is significantly higher this November than in past council stand-alone elections.

"The people know that when it comes down to it, Harry will listen to them," Downey said. "He's not in anybody's pocket. He's an independent."

Cardwell conceded that Martin can be "unethical at times," but said he is the only one to consistently stick up for the "common people." Unlike the others, "he understands people who struggle," he said.

No one has taken on Martin more over the years than Joe Turner, a Napa based business consultant who has written scathing letters to the editor decrying Martin's ethics and what he sees as his disregard for the truth.

"If you're an anti-Harry person, I'd say this is the best chance Napa has had to send him home ever," Turner said.

Yet Martin has a reliable constituency, Turner said. "If I had to be a betting person, he'll probably edge by," he said.

Former Councilwoman JoAnn Busenbark said a growing number of Napans are probably fed up with Martin's "antics," but she doesn't predict his demise on Tuesday. "The people who support Harry are the people who vote," she said.

Former Councilman David Crawford said Martin gets elected because of his "contrarian" views, which seem to resonate with a significant percentage of the electorate.

"If they want him for 16 years, they'll probably want him for 20 years, 24 years," Block said. If Martin wins on Tuesday, "I think it's his for life."

No council member has been elected to four terms in three-quarters of a century, Martin said. His election would set a modern-day record.

If voters send him packing, Martin said he would accept their judgment. "I can live with it or without it," he said of his council job. "It's not the end of the world."