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A new argument on oil drilling in Alaska
Sunday, August 20, 2006
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The United States again is close to squandering a rare resource. The issue affects national security and generations who will need the resource far more than we do in the early 21st century. The subject is oil drilling in Alaska, but hold on before skipping to the next article. This is a new argument to most readers.

The Los Angeles Times and other serious publications have covered the long-standing battle over the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The usual suspects line up in the usual way -- environmentalist versus developer, caribou-lover versus Hummer driver, Sierra Club versus Exxon. We are familiar with claims about eco-friendly drilling and the billions of barrels the refuge may hold. Yet, one question is taken for granted in both Congress and news media: Why would we want to burn this resource now?
Oil is unique -- astonishingly concentrated and liquid at room temperature. It powers 97 percent of global mechanized transportation. From motorcycle helmets to plumbing, it makes everything plastic. Your computer is part oil, as are most medical devices. No other earthly substance seems so magical.

Our oil supply situation is precarious. Cal Tech Professor David Goodstein explained that our ability to supply oil is hitting a geological wall. Eldridge Moores, former president of the Geological Society of America, says "this is one of the biggest problems of our age." If you think Goodstein and Moores are extremists, I'll refer you to David O'Reilly, chairman of Chevron, who writes, "the era of easy oil is over." Veteran investment analyst Charles Maxwell says, "It's not like the old days. This is nature."
We import 65 percent of our oil. Three-quarters of world reserves are concentrated in Islamic theocracies and assorted trouble spots. Bob Baer, ex-CIA agent and author of "Sleeping With the Devil," has explained how vulnerable the global oil supply is. With vulnerability comes the potential for economic shock that Baer explains in language not permitted in a family newspaper. So, why should we not start vaporizing Alaskan oil?

Precious resources should be hoarded for generations, not incinerated in less time than it takes to wear out the warranty on a minivan. If a family had one cord of firewood left for the winter, would it make sense to burn it as rapidly as possible? If a student were down to the last $200 in the checking account, would it make sense to race to the next ATM? Racing to use the last of a depleting resource is foolish.
Roscoe Bartlett, a life-long scientist and inventor before being elected to Congress in his 60s, seven terms ago, votes against every act promoting drilling in ANWR. Bartlett, a Republican who has briefed President Bush on oil depletion, makes his case succinctly: "It's really dumb to use what little you have as quickly as you can."

The usual suspects are wrong on this issue. ANWR should not be off-limits. One of these generations, environmentalists' descendants, will need bullet-proof vests, pacemakers, pesticides and other products best made with the magic of black gold. Then, we will need ecologically sensitive ways to bring some of that oil to the surface. If a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged, as someone used to say, maybe an environmentalist is someone who hasn't yet run out of gas. ANWR's oil will be needed.

While ANWR should not be off-limits, it's equally true that we should not even think about touching a drop of its oil for a long, long time. If "conservative" means anything, one would think it means planning and saving. What sense does it make to accelerate depletion and perhaps deprivation? Why sell a barrel now when it may be worth 50 times as much 50 years from now?

I propose the following. Anti-drilling factions should agree that there is nothing sacred about ANWR that would exclude careful, restrained tapping of some of its petroleum resources. Pro-drilling factions should agree to table the issue for, say, a half century. In 2056 we might really need some of that oil.

(Theobald, a Calistoga resident, is a lecturer in UC Davis' communication department and chair of the University of California Oil Forum.)
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